The so-called ‘Trump Trade’ faces intense scrutiny as Bitcoin (BTC), Tesla (TSLA), and the US dollar all experience significant declines.
The initial enthusiasm for President Donald Trump’s pro-growth policies has faded, leading to disappointment in the financial markets.
Bitcoin, Tesla, and US Dollar Show Sharp Decline
Bitcoin, which had surged past $100,000 amid optimism for a second Trump administration, has now dropped below $85,310. Market analysis points to a lack of solid support between the $90,000 and $70,000 range, raising concerns about further declines.
BTC Price Performance. Source: TradingView
The sharp fall comes as traders react to President Donald Trump’s lack of concrete action to ease crypto regulations despite earlier promises. Crypto analyst and influencer Crypto Rover summed up the disappointment on social media.
“Trump promised us a strategic Bitcoin reserve. He gave us a trade war instead” the analyst wrote.
Tesla, often seen as a barometer of the so-called ‘Trump Trade,’ has experienced a steep decline. Its stock, TSLA, is down nearly 40% since its peak following Trump’s election victory. The electric vehicle giant fell almost 4% on February 26 alone. This downswing extended a losing streak that has seen its stock drop 24% for the year.
Tesla TSLA Stock Performance. Source: TradingView
Investors are increasingly concerned that Tesla is being sidelined by CEO Elon Musk’s focus on federal reforms. Furthermore, Musk’s polarizing political stance has hurt Tesla’s performance in Europe, where sales dropped 45% in January, despite the overall increase in electric vehicle sales in the region by 37%.
Similarly, the US dollar and Treasury yields, which had initially strengthened on expectations of Trump’s economic policies, are now in decline. Analysts cite fears that Trump’s aggressive trade policies—especially his newly announced tariffs—could lead to a resurgence of inflation while simultaneously slowing economic growth.
The Impact of Trump’s Trade War
The Kobeissi Letter, a well-known financial analysis outlet, highlighted the wide-ranging impact of Trump’s aggressive trade stance. The president recently announced sweeping tariffs, including 25% on Canada and Mexico, 25% on the European Union, 10% on China, and a potential 100% tariff on BRICS nations.
These tariffs are expected to raise the cost of goods in the US, with inflation expectations surging and analysts warning that it could double from its recent lows.
“Markets are now pricing in a rebound in inflation as prices on many goods are expected to rise,” observed The Kobeissi Letter.
Meanwhile, one of the most striking trends in financial markets is the sharp divergence between Bitcoin and gold. While gold has surged 10% recently, Bitcoin has dropped 10%, despite historically being viewed as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
Gold vs. Bitcoin Performance. Source: TradingView
Amid the market turmoil, a new study by Dancing Numbers suggests that Trump’s tariff plan could offer significant tax relief to Americans. The study found that replacing income taxes with tariffs on imports could save the average American up to $325,561 in lifetime taxes.
If Trump’s tariff plan eliminates federal income taxes, New Jersey, Connecticut, and New York residents could save $146,160, $149,535, and $136,215 over their lifetimes.
With many Americans struggling under high tax burdens, Trump’s proposal could represent a seismic shift in the country’s financial space. However, skeptics worry that relying solely on tariffs could increase inflation and create new economic challenges.
“This could shake global markets! Volatility is the new normal, and US inflation may stay high—rate cuts? Not so soon,” Jagadish, a user on X, expressed.
Investors remain wary of further volatility as markets adjust to Trump’s policies. The ‘Trump Trade’ is facing its biggest test with mounting inflation concerns and key assets faltering.
