Although Ethereum holders have gone through one of the worst times in the asset’s history, the most recent on-chain data indicates that this protracted suffering might eventually serve as the basis for the upcoming bullish phase.
Ethereum’s capitulation isn’t critical
Swissblock’s Supply in Profit/Loss model indicates that Ethereum has been in “capitulation” for almost six months running. The bulk of the $ETH supply has been underwater since late January, which means that more coins were held at a loss than at a profit.
Sellers swiftly regained control and forced another wave of unrealized losses across the network, even though the April–May recovery momentarily moved a sizable portion of supply back toward breakeven. The current figures continue to show high levels of stress. There are still about 45.7 million $ETH in losses as opposed to just 31.6 million in gains.
The market is only starting to recover from months of pressure, as evidenced by the average breakeven price rising back toward $1,880. Ironically, long-lasting market bottoms are frequently caused by these circumstances. Ethereum’s price has made a remarkable comeback from its capitulation low in June, which was close to $1,500, according to the daily chart. After recovering the 26-day and 50-day moving averages, $ETH is currently trading at about $1,890.
These indicators of the shorter-term trend have become support, indicating that buyers have taken back control of the intermediate trend. The next challenge is right above. Around $1,935, Ethereum is testing the declining 100-day EMA, which has rejected multiple attempts to move higher. The recovery would be greatly strengthened by a decisive close above that level, which might also draw attention to the psychologically significant $2,000 level.
Momentum saves $ETH
Despite recent consolidation, momentum is still positive. The RSI is between 58 and 60, which shows strong buying pressure without going into overbought territory. This allows bulls to keep rising if general market conditions stay favorable. The current arrangement is especially intriguing because of the discrepancy between positioning and sentiment. Long stretches of time during which the majority of holders stay underwater have historically correlated with accumulation rather than distribution.
Longer-term investors absorb supply at reduced prices while weak hands gradually withdraw. It seems like that process is starting up again. The network is gradually recovering from the worst of the strain, despite the fact that Ethereum owners have gone through one of the longest capitulation phases in history.
Although the market seldom rewards investors when conditions are comfortable, the pain has not entirely subsided. The months of capitulation that deterred investors could instead serve as the starting point for the next significant increase if Ethereum manages to break through the $1,935 resistance level and more supply returns to profit.
