The analyst at CryptoQuant weighed in on $BTC’s notable price resurgence, which drove the asset from under $65,000 to over $82,000 within a few weeks, and, more specifically, on the subsequent rejection and what could follow around the corner.
They believe the overall setup remains constructive, but the cryptocurrency has to overcome a stack of technical and on-chain resistance levels, which are right in front of it.
Which Level Decides $BTC’s Fate?
The weekly report by CryptoQuant identified Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, currently located at $81,700, as the asset’s most important level. Recall that $BTC briefly exceeded that level at the start of September, but the bears stepped up and quickly rejected the move.
Historically, bull markets have “officially” begun once the cryptocurrency closes above this moving average. A successful close above $81,700 could confirm a new bullish phase and open the door for another major leg up. However, its continuous inability to break through could lead to a longer consolidation phase or even to a more profound decline.
On the downside, bitcoin’s rally won’t be confirmed by simply moving past the $81,700 obstacle, as there are a few others on the way up. At first, CryptoQuant found the 3x Metcalfe valuation band, which sits at $83,600 and stands as the next big resistance. This level halted $BTC in May and has previously coincided with important cycle turning points.
If taken down, there’s one more at $88,700, which is the trader realized-price upper band. History shows that selling has intensified once the cryptocurrency approaches this line because active traders begin sitting on increasingly large unrealized profits.
539K $BTC
CryptoQuant noted that the most immediate problem is considerably closer as long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 units between $77,100 and $80,200 throughout the year, creating what the analysts described as the heaviest nearby on-chain supply wall.
You may also like:
- Bitcoin and Ethereum Explode, Wrecking Over $250M in Shorts in an Hour
- Bitcoin Price Reacts to August US CPI Data: Here’s What Happened
- ‘We Will Not Pay’: Blockstream Rejects 10% Bounty Demand From Liquid Hackers
Bitcoin would need to absorb this supply before making another convincing attempt north, while the downside is better defined. The 200-day MA around $70,000 represents the first major technical support, followed by another substantial on-chain cluster between $62,000 and $65,000, where approximately 476,000 $BTC were accumulated this year.
Overall, CQ’s analysts are still bullish on $BTC, but under one critical condition: the asset must clear $81,700 soon, then $83,600, and eventually $88,700 before the recovery can develop into a more profound rally.
