This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
Before we get into the groove and craziness of 2025, I want to reflect on my favorite interviews and biggest takeaways of 2024.
Warren Mosler is the father and pioneer of the modern monetary theory (MMT) movement, and has very unique views compared to traditional macroeconomic thinking. I had him on the show as I wanted to understand his views of the current economic environment.
One big learning was how high interest rates were actually making inflation worse, rather than deterring it. When debt levels become as elevated as they are, interest payments made to Treasury holders act as income.
Therefore, to Warren, for inflation to come down the Fed needs to actually cut rates.
Jeff Park is the head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise and an absolute powerhouse on all things options and derivatives. We sat down right as options on the US spot bitcoin ETFs started trading and had a fascinating 201-level discussion.
One of the biggest takeaways: Because crypto options marketplaces like Deribit operate 24/7 and ETF options hew to standard market hours, prices on each marketplace should actually be different. When there is more time for the option to trade (Theta), the probability of it expiring in the money is higher — which comes with a higher price for the option.
Dr. Stephen Miran is a fellow at the Manhattan Institute and worked at the US Treasury during the last Trump Administration. He’s a leading academic on the potential economic impact of Trump’s incoming trade policies, namely around tariffs.
I had Stephen on the show for an exclusive launch interview for his latest paper, in which he unpacked the mechanical impacts of what tariffs could do to the US economy. He highlighted them as a necessary tool to help the US alleviate symptoms of what he calls the Triffin’s Dilemma — the associated residual effects of what happens when a country’s money is the global reserve currency.
George Robertson is a veteran macro trader and a true maven. He has a unique view on what drives the economy and markets. The core of his revolutionary view: The Fed has no actual impact on the economy in terms of its mechanical policy implementations; it’s almost entirely psychological.
These episodes were my favorite because each guest held unorthodox views that they developed independently to become leading thinkers within their domains.
As we head into another year of wicked episodes on Forward Guidance, I encourage you to revisit some of these truly excellent podcasts!
