Disclaimer: The analyst who wrote this piece owns shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR)
It’s been a tough month for MicroStrategy (MSTR), the software developer turned bitcoin (BTC) accumulator. Its stock has tumbled almost 50% since November, when it joined the Nasdaq 100 index and peaked at a 600% gain since the start of the year.
That still leaves the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company a whopping 342% ahead in 2024, the biggest return among the highest-profile crypto-linked assets in traditional finance (TradFi).
It’s been a volatile year, packed with geopolitical and technological developments to rattle financial markets. The continuing wars in eastern Europe and the Middle East, elections across the globe, the unwinding of the yen carry trade in August and the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) have all left their marks.
MicroStrategy’s gain is almost double that of Nvidia (NVDA), the chipmaker whose production of integrated circuits needed for AI applications fueled a 185% return, the best among the so-called magnificent seven tech stocks. The next best, Meta Platforms (META), turned in 71%.
Bitcoin itself rose 100% in a year that included April’s reward halving and multiple record highs. Demand for the largest cryptocurrency was driven by the January approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. Bitcoin outperformed two of its biggest competitors, ether (ETH), up 42%, and Solana (SOL), up 79%.
Among the ETF’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) also returned over 100% and became the fastest ETF in history to hit $50 billion in assets.
Bitcoin mining companies, on the whole, disappointed. Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI), a proxy for mining stocks, rose just under 30%. That’s despite demand for the miners’ computing capabilities and power supply agreements from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) companies. Still, individual companies benefited, in particular, Bitdeer (BTDR),which added 151%, and WULF (WULF), which gained 131%.
Nevertheless, the miners’ gains beat the broader equities market. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) added 28% while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 25%. The S&P 500 also trailed behind gold’s 27% increase. The precious commodity has now topped the equity gauge in three of the past five years.
Concerns about U.S. inflation and the country’s budget deficit added to the geopolitical uncertainties to prompt a massive rise in U.S. treasury yields, which move in the opposite direction to price.
The yield on the 10-Year Treasury added 15% to 4.5% over the course of the year, and surprisingly gained a full 100 basis points since the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates in September.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which tracks bond prices, dropped 10% this year and has lost 40% in the past five years.
The dollar, on the other hand, showed its strength. The DXY Index (DXY), a measure of the greenback against a basket of the currencies of the U.S.’ biggest trading partners, rose to the highest since September 2022.
West Texas Intermediate (USOIL), the benchmark oil price in the U.S., ends the year little changed, up less than 1% to around $71 a barrel. But it was a bumpy ride, with the price rising to almost $90 at some points in the past 12 months.
As we head into the new year, all eyes will be on the debt ceiling discussion, the policies of President-elect Donald Trump and whether the U.S. can continue with its impressive growth story.
Assets % YTD Returns (TradingView)
