The analyst identified roughly $87,400 as the price that buyers need to reclaim on a daily or weekly closing basis. Alongside that close, she wants to see continued ETF inflows and stronger spot purchases before treating the advance as a convincing breakout.
Zhang described the current obstacle as “profit-taking and existing supply” absorbing institutional demand. In her reading, Bitcoin’s inability to keep trading above $87,000 shows that positive fund flows have yet to overcome selling around its recent highs.
Her next upside levels are $90,000 and $93,000, while she places downside support at $84,000 and $82,000. The analyst tied the higher targets to falling yields and supportive inflation data rather than presenting them as an unconditional October price forecast.
Weak payrolls have reduced October hike expectations
Using data available as of Oct. 5, Zhang put the CME FedWatch probability of an October rate increase at roughly 23%, compared with about 64% one week earlier. She linked the change to September payroll growth of just 29,000.
“The Fed repricing has already provided a meaningful boost to Bitcoin,” she said.
An Oct. 2 report on the September payrolls miss detailed the employment figures behind that reassessment. Citing Reuters, the report said economists had expected 90,000 additional jobs, while unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%.
According to the same coverage, August’s payroll gain was revised to 133,000 from the initially reported 162,000. Bitcoin had recovered from roughly $83,000 toward $86,000 around the September report’s release, bringing the $87,000–$87,500 resistance area back into view.
The Oct. 2 report also recorded the 10-year Treasury yield climbing above 5.34% on Oct. 1 before easing toward 5.25%. For Zhang, a further decline in yields would support her upside scenario, provided upcoming inflation figures reinforce the softer labor-market reading.
Her assessment nevertheless leaves inflation as a separate test: weaker hiring has reduced expectations of an immediate increase, but she warned that stronger consumer or producer price data could revive those expectations.
ETF inflows have not overcome selling near $87,000
According to Zhang, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $2.65 billion during September and approximately $134 million across October’s first two trading sessions. She described the inflows as supportive while cautioning that their size has not been enough to force Bitcoin through resistance.
“ETF demand remains supportive, but it is not yet strong enough on its own to force a breakout,” she said.
Earlier coverage of the ETF inflows and yields on Sep. 29 documented a similar combination of fund buying and price weakness. Hilbert Group reported $2.39 billion in weekly crypto ETF inflows even as Bitcoin fell 4.3% to about $83,500.
In that report, Hilbert senior portfolio manager Jesse Marre said 10-year Treasury yields had risen from approximately 4.95% to 5.20%. He attributed the bond-market pressure to inflation concerns, an existing upward trend in yields and doubts about government finances.
The same coverage, citing Farside Investors data, put BlackRock’s IBIT inflows at about $1.16 billion during Sep. 21–25, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC at $701.6 million and $ARK 21Shares’ ARKB at $294.7 million.
Across those five sessions, the report said daily Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed from roughly $999 million on Monday to $134.5 million on Friday, although each day remained positive. Zhang’s latest comments likewise distinguish continued subscriptions to U.S. investment products from enough buying pressure to sustain a price breakout.
Inflation and another Fed hike remain downside risks
Among the threats to her forecast, Zhang listed stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index or Producer Price Index readings, renewed oil-driven inflation, hawkish Fed guidance and another increase in long-term Treasury yields. Any of those developments could restore rate-hike expectations and push Bitcoin toward $84,000, she said, with $82,000 the next major support.
A Sep. 29 report on the October rate hike risk recorded a related warning from HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun. He said another increase could cause investors to view September’s decision as the beginning of repeated tightening rather than a single preventive move.
For U.S. investors holding Bitcoin directly or through spot funds, Sun identified long-term Treasury yields, ETF flows and derivatives leverage as the main factors to follow. He said sustained fund inflows could support the price, while excessive borrowing in derivatives markets could increase risk if conditions changed.
According to that report, the Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Sep. 16, with all 12 voting members supporting the decision. Its September projections placed the median year-end policy rate at 4.1%, up from 3.8% in June, while 16 of 18 participants projected a rate above the current range.
