The Federal Reserve’s next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27-28. The producer price index, or PPI, measures prices received by domestic producers and is due Oct. 15. Its designation as the final major near-term release reflects Mena’s assessment.
Hotter CPI Challenges Bitcoin’s Recovery
September’s consumer price index results showed prices rose 0.6% from August and 3.7% over the preceding year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. The monthly core reading exceeded the 0.2% economists had expected. Bitcoin subsequently fell below $83,000, toward $82,800, after the release.
Mena’s initial commentary described $BTC as holding above $83,000 after previously testing the $81,000-$82,000 zone. Before the release, the retreat had also brought support near $81,300 into focus. His argument rests on that earlier selling having absorbed much of the inflation risk, even as subsequent trading tested the initial assessment.
The strategist views bitcoin, a decentralized digital currency, as a barometer of liquidity and investors’ willingness to hold riskier assets. His analysis puts $BTC’s average return at 1.21% in the seven days following hotter-than-expected core CPI releases since 2023, supporting his interpretation that an inflation surprise need not prevent a recovery.
ETF Flows Frame Ether and Solana Price Targets
Institutional positioning provides another reference point, with bitcoin having twice rebounded near the $81,500 ETF cost basis identified by Glassnode. That benchmark estimates the acquisition price associated with U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund holdings. The analysis identified approximately $77,500 as the next major downside level if that support fails.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $175.62 million in net inflows on Oct. 13, reversing the preceding session’s withdrawals. Fidelity’s spot bitcoin ETF, FBTC, received $103.06 million, while Blackrock’s equivalent fund, IBIT, brought in $65.89 million. Ether funds also returned to positive flows, drawing $24.84 million after 10 consecutive sessions of net redemptions.
Mena also cited quarterly ETF inflows exceeding $3 billion for ETH and $500 million for SOL, describing their strongest quarter this year. He expects ether to consolidate around $2,500 in the near term before another attempt at $2,800-$3,000. For solana, the strategist identified $130 as a potential price level by the end of the quarter.
