Bitcoin price has rebounded above $60,000 after easing oil prices and softer U.S. macro expectations lifted risk appetite, though persistent ETF outflows continue to threaten the recovery.
According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin ($BTC) price climbed from a low near $58,300 to around $60,600 over the past 24 hours as investors responded to softer inflation expectations and improving sentiment across global markets.
Risk assets also benefited from progress in indirect U.S.-Iran talks, while Brent crude slipped below $71 a barrel after oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated and concerns over supply disruptions eased. Lower energy prices reduced inflation worries, giving cryptocurrencies room to recover after June’s sharp sell-off.
The rebound comes after one of Bitcoin’s weakest months in recent years. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another $294.6 million in net outflows on July 1 after losing $222.6 million, $231.1 million and $444.5 million during the previous three sessions, extending a streak of institutional withdrawals that has removed billions of dollars from the sector in recent weeks. Those redemptions have continued to offset improving macro sentiment by forcing ETF issuers to sell underlying Bitcoin into the market.
Federal Reserve policy also remains a key obstacle. Although traders welcomed recent dovish remarks, interest rates remain elevated, and expectations for policy easing have been pushed further into the future. Higher Treasury yields continue to compete with non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, while institutional capital has increasingly flowed toward U.S. technology and artificial intelligence stocks instead of digital assets.
Bitcoin must reclaim $62.7K and $65K to strengthen the recovery
Bitcoin’s 1-day chart shows price rebounding from the 100% Fibonacci retracement near $57,826 after briefly testing the lower boundary of a multi-month decline. The recovery has lifted RSI from deeply oversold territory to around 40, suggesting selling pressure has eased without yet confirming a trend reversal.
Even after reclaiming $60,000, Bitcoin continues to trade below all key moving averages clustered between roughly $62,400 and $75,100, leaving major resistance overhead.
The 4-hour chart paints a more constructive short-term picture. Bitcoin has reclaimed the Supertrend support near $57,700 while the Aroon Up reading has climbed above 78%, with Aroon Down slipping below 43%, suggesting buyers have regained short-term control after the late-June washout.
Bitcoin price has also returned above psychological support at $60,000, though sustained buying will still be needed to challenge resistance around $61,000 before the larger moving-average cluster comes into view.
Derivatives positioning shows traders remain heavily focused on nearby liquidation levels. CoinGlass’ 24-hour heatmap highlights dense short liquidation clusters between $61,000 and $61,800, suggesting a move through that range could accelerate buying as bearish positions are forced to close. On the downside, equally large long liquidation pockets sit around $59,500 and $58,000, creating potential downside magnets if Bitcoin loses its recent gains.
According to analyst Ted Pillows, the latest advance should still be treated cautiously.
“This is just a relief rally, which often happens after a 30% crash. Bitcoin’s key levels are $62,700 and $65,000, which must be reclaimed for another lower high before a new cycle low.”
Commenting on the shorter-term setup, analyst Altcoin Sherpa noted that Bitcoin looks constructive on lower time frames while price remains above current support, although he added that he would not feel confident until Bitcoin decisively breaks above $65,000 on higher-time-frame charts.
$BTC honestly looking ok for now on lower time frames as long as we see price holding above this area. I’m probably not going to feel safe until we cleanly break above 65k though on HTF charts. Still pretty unsure but support is still support pic.twitter.com/WBT9qGZcin
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) July 2, 2026
ETF selling and macro risks could quickly reverse the recovery
Several downside risks continue to threaten Bitcoin’s rebound. Continued spot ETF redemptions remain the most immediate concern, particularly if institutional demand fails to return after June’s record wave of outflows. Corporate developments have also weighed on sentiment after Strategy revised its capital policy to permit token sales, raising concerns that one of Bitcoin’s largest corporate holders could eventually add supply to the market.
Macro and geopolitical uncertainty also remain unresolved. While oil prices have retreated on improving U.S.-Iran negotiations, any disruption to talks or renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could quickly push energy prices higher and revive inflation concerns.
On the technical side, failure to defend the $60,000 area would expose the $59,500 and $58,000 liquidation zones, while a break below June’s low near $57,800 would invalidate the current relief rally and reopen the path toward fresh cycle lows.
