How Low Could Bitcoin Go?
The S&P 500 closed at around 7,710 on October 20, less than 2% below its October 6 record high. A 20% decline from that peak would bring the index to approximately 6,250.
Bitcoin’s potential downside would depend on the severity of the stock market correction. Based on comparisons with previous downturns, the analyst outlined three scenarios:
- $67,500: A decline similar to the 2025 market correction.
- $43,000: A scenario comparable to the 2020 sell-off.
- $29,000: A deeper decline resembling the 2022 bear market.
These figures are illustrative scenarios, not confirmed forecasts. The analyst’s current support zone is between $63,000 and $75,000.
Is Bitcoin Close to Another Decline?
The analyst said the S&P 500’s rally since the summer has become uneven, suggesting that the index could be approaching a short-term peak. However, the market has not confirmed a major downturn, and another move to a record high remains possible.
Bitcoin is already roughly one-third below its own all-time high, which could limit further losses. However, its correlation with the S&P 500 has risen to around 0.6 over the past six weeks, indicating that the two markets have recently moved more closely together.
In the near term, the analyst is watching whether Bitcoin can extend its rebound toward $85,700. If the recovery loses momentum, another downward move could follow.
Can Bitcoin Recover After a Stock Market Crash?
Despite its larger losses during previous sell-offs, Bitcoin has often recovered within months of a stock market bottom. In five of the six historical cases examined, BTC was trading higher six months after the S&P 500 reached its low. Its median gain over that period was approximately 58%.
However, the analyst cautioned that the current market may behave differently. A stock market correction could deepen Bitcoin’s losses, while the timing and strength of any recovery would depend on how both markets develop.
For now, the key question is whether the S&P 500 can sustain its rally or begins a deeper correction that puts additional pressure on Bitcoin.
