Chinese crypto analyst Murphy stated that the current recovery in Bitcoin should be considered a “weak rebound,” and that the short-term target range is between $64,000 and $68,000. According to the analyst, the $70,000 level stands out as the ceiling for a short-term rebound within a bear market.
According to Murphy’s assessment, the average cost for current short-term Bitcoin investors is concentrated in the $64,000-$68,000 range, especially among those holding BTC for less than a month and less than three months. Therefore, the Bitcoin price needs to make repeated attempts to break through this region.
The analyst stated that each time the price approaches this cost range, some weak investors might sell as their unrealized losses turn into profit. Murphy noted that this creates a cycle of “breakout, resistance, pullback, and another breakout attempt,” arguing that this cycle is necessary for the formation of a bottom consensus.
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Murphy divided the expected recovery into three main levels. Accordingly, the $64,000 and $68,000 levels are being watched as critical resistances related to the cost zone for short-term investors, while the $70,000 level corresponds to the realized price (STH-RP) of short-term investors.
In on-chain analysis, STH-RP is considered the bull-bear dividing line in terms of market sentiment. According to Murphy, every trend reversal usually begins with a sustained breakout above this line.
The analyst stated that in his baseline scenario, he expects a weak recovery in Bitcoin, with the price potentially rising to the $64,000-$68,000 range. However, he noted that a surprise surge above $70,000 could be considered a strong rebound.
Options market data also supports the levels highlighted by the analyst. Accordingly, the fact that market makers are in a positive Gamma position around $62,000 may lead to volatility being suppressed in this region through hedging transactions. Following a possible upward breakout, the next positive Gamma zone is located in the $66,000-$68,000 range, indicating that this region could also act as a significant resistance line.
*This is not investment advice.
