Bitcoin price prediction turns cautious below $76,855.70, the 20-day EMA that gave way after the CLARITY Act failed its Senate cloture vote and long liquidations spiked.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can $BTC Hold Its Trendline Breakout?
Yes, $BTC’s breakout still looks intact, but the 20-day EMA is the level that decides it. $BTC trades near $75,767.03, up 0.24% today, sitting just below the 20-day EMA at $76,855.70 after three failed attempts to clear $80,000 this past week. Price still holds well above the 50-day EMA ($73,546.27), the 100-day ($71,351.29), and the 200-day ($73,083.08), and remains above the long-term descending trendline it broke out of in September, a line that had capped every rally attempt this year.
The near-term caution sign: a bearish RSI divergence has formed at the $80,000 rejection zone, price pushed to a higher high while RSI printed a lower high, a pattern that has often preceded pullbacks. That’s a warning, not a breakdown. The level that would actually confirm the recovery is stalling is a daily close below the 20-day EMA at $76,855.70 — until that happens, this reads as consolidation after a strong run, not a trend reversal.
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$BTC Support and Resistance Levels, September 17, 2026
Bitcoin News: CLARITY Act Fails Cloture Vote, Triggering $288M in Liquidations
🚨 $288.44M IN CRYPTO LONG POSITIONS LIQUIDATED IN THE PAST 4H AFTER SENATE FAILS CLARITY ACT CLOTURE VOTE https://t.co/8lHP789sWc
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) September 15, 2026
The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate Tuesday, falling short on a cloture vote 49-50 that needed 60 votes to proceed, according to Scott Melker. The failure triggered a sharp reaction in crypto derivatives, with $288.44 million in long positions liquidated within four hours of the vote, also per Melker.
Bitcoin didn’t wait for the Senate vote.
It moved before the Clarity Act failed.
The odds were already changing.
The weekly close was already flashing a warning and bitcoin:native kept getting rejected at $80,0003 times in one week.
The most important thing hasn’t even… pic.twitter.com/yghMwy3L6o
— Kyle Chassé 🐸 (@Kylechasse) September 15, 2026
Trader Kyle Chassé noted Bitcoin had already been showing weakness before the vote landed. He pointed out $BTC had been rejected at $80,000 three separate times over the past week and that its most recent weekly close carried a warning sign of its own, arguing the more consequential event for price is still ahead, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
Bitcoin News: Fed Rate Hike Odds Climb to 92.5% Ahead of Wednesday’s Decision
Markets are now pricing a 92.5% chance the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark rate to a 375 to 400 basis point range at this week’s meeting, up sharply from 61.2% odds just a week ago and only 33.1% a month ago.
Just 7.5% odds remain priced for the Fed holding steady, with no odds left for a cut. Bloomberg separately flagged the rate decision as a fresh source of pressure for crypto, since it will test whether the optimism built during Bitcoin’s late-August rebound can hold once the decision lands.
Bitcoin ETF Flows: A $450M Outflow Snaps the Prior Day’s Inflow
US spot Bitcoin ETFs booked a $450.33 million net outflow on September 15, reversing the $160.04 million inflow from the day before according to SoSoValue. Total net assets across all $BTC ETFs fell to $95.72 billion from $100.09 billion a day earlier, a drop driven by both the outflow and Bitcoin’s price pulling back over the same session. Cumulative net inflows stand at $54.86 billion, with $4.35 billion traded across the funds on the day.
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Fidelity’s FBTC led the day’s outflows at $214.75 million, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT at $161.69 million and Grayscale’s GBTC at $44.14 million. IBIT remains the largest fund by net assets at $59.58 billion despite the outflow, while GBTC’s legacy fund, which has bled a cumulative $27.83 billion since converting from a trust, holds $9.71 billion in net assets.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for September 17
Bullish Case, Target: $80,000
$BTC reclaims the 20-day EMA at $76,855.70 and holds above it on a daily close. A less hawkish Fed outcome than markets currently expect, or a bounce off the still-intact trendline breakout, could support another run at the $80,000 zone that’s rejected price three times this month.
Bearish Case, Risk Level: $73,546.27 (50-Day EMA)
$BTC fails to reclaim $76,855.70 and the CLARITY Act fallout compounds with a hawkish Fed hike. A break below the 50-day EMA would expose the 200-day at $73,083.08 and the 100-day at $71,351.29 as the next supports.
Bitcoin Price Prediction FAQs
$BTC could stabilize and retest $80,000 if it reclaims the 20-day EMA at $76,855.70. Losing that level risks a slide toward the 50-day EMA at $73,546.27.
The Senate failed to invoke cloture on the CLARITY Act by a 49-50 vote, falling short of the 60 needed to advance, and the news triggered $288.44 million in long position liquidations within four hours.
Yes. Markets are pricing a 92.5% chance of a rate hike at Wednesday’s meeting, sharply higher than the 61.2% odds priced a week earlier and the 33.1% odds priced a month ago.
Not on the most recent day. US spot Bitcoin ETFs booked a $450.33 million outflow on September 15, reversing the prior day’s $160.04 million inflow, though cumulative inflows remain positive at $54.86 billion.
