Bitcoin is showing renewed signs of weakness, with historical data suggesting the market may be entering a phase that typically brings further downside.
According to analyst Benjamin Cowen, this period often marks the continuation of declines in midterm years.
Key Points
- Bitcoin shows mid-cycle weakness as historical patterns point to continued downside in 2026.
- Analyst Benjamin Cowen says midterm years often bring fading momentum and extended corrections.
- $BTC tracks past cycles, down 47% from peak near $66K as Q2–Q3 weakness typically unfolds.
- Bear flag signals risk toward $50K–$41K, with macro pressures adding to bearish outlook.
Bitcoin Midterm Pattern Points to Softening Momentum
Recent data tracking Bitcoin’s year-to-date ROI highlights a recurring trend seen in previous mid-cycle years such as 2014, 2018, and 2022. Bitcoin tends to start the year relatively stable before losing momentum around late Q1 to early Q2.
Across these cycles, performance gradually weakens as the year progresses, with prices trending lower. This suggests the market often enters a softer phase between Q2 and Q3, as early gains fade and selling pressure builds.
2026 Tracking Historical Average
So far, Bitcoin’s 2026 performance is closely mirroring this historical pattern. Following a strong uptrend in 2025, the price trajectory has continued to tilt downward, aligning with the typical midterm-year structure.
This indicates that recent price action is part of a cyclical pattern that has repeated across multiple market cycles.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $66,000, down 47% from its recent peak, reflecting growing pressure.
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Benjamin Cowen’s Bitcoin chart
Macro Pressures Add to Weakness
Indeed, midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022) are consolidation periods following major bull runs, and 2026 has been no different. During this phase, markets experience reduced momentum, intermittent volatility, and extended corrections as investors reassess positioning.
Cowen’s observation reinforces the idea that Bitcoin may be transitioning deeper into this cooldown phase, where rallies struggle to sustain upward momentum.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic concerns are amplifying Bitcoin’s technical weakness. $BTC dipped below $66,000 today, pressured by rising oil prices following geopolitical tensions, fears of persistent U.S. inflation, and stress in the bond market.
The situation escalated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a spike in oil prices and rattling global markets. Risk assets, including Bitcoin, moved lower as a result.
Bearish Structures Point to $41K Scenario
Amid the current situation, some analysts are warning of a more negative outlook. A “bear flag” pattern points to a possible drop toward $50,000, with a worst-case scenario around $41,000.
While many investors believe in Bitcoin long-term, the short-term outlook raises concerns. Ultimately, Cowen’s data suggests Bitcoin may continue to follow its usual mid-cycle pattern, in which rallies fade, volatility increases, and patience is needed before the next major move.
