In brief
- Bitcoin’s daily 50-day EMA dipped back below its 200-day EMA Friday evening as $BTC retreated to $77,438, undoing the golden cross that had briefly confirmed earlier in the session.
- The 4-hour chart’s golden cross is still intact, but momentum has cooled.
- The reversal tracks a hawkish repricing in rates markets: The odds of a hike at next week’s Fed meeting have spiked to 86% per CME.
Bitcoin’s brief flirtation with a confirmed daily golden cross is active but didn’t survive the afternoon.
$BTC is trading around $77,438 right now, still up 1.19% on the day but well off its earlier high near $79,837. The pullback tracks a rates market that turned more hawkish, not less, after inflation numbers landed today.
Today’s CPI numbers showed the monthly core reading at 0.3%, hotter than the 0.2% analysts expected. CME FedWatch, which tracks probabilities implied by 30-day Fed funds futures, had the odds of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at roughly 69% just after the inflation data landed. Those odds have since spiked to 86.5% in just the last few hours.
A rate hike would generally precede a risk off move from investors, meaning risk assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks would take a hit if the Fed decides to raise rates next week at its next meeting.
Today’s daily Bitcoin candle opened at $76,529, spiked to an intraday high of $79,837, then rolled over to a low of $76,040 before settling near $77,438—still a 1.19% gain on the day, but a long way down from the highs.
That round trip was enough to flip the daily exponential-moving-average reading back to bearish: Bitcoin’s 50-day EMA, which tracks the average price of $BTC over the last 50 days, had briefly crossed above its 200-day EMA earlier Friday. That’s a formation traders refer to as a golden cross, which is as bullish as chart patterns get—and one Bitcoin had not seen since last November. But it didn’t last long.
Bitcoin’s 50-day average has slipped back under, meaning prices are still inches away from a golden cross. It may well still happen, but it looks like today won’t be the day.
Why a flickering golden cross isn’t unusual
A golden cross forms when a shorter-term moving average—the 50-day, tracking the last 50 daily closes—crosses above a longer-term one, the 200-day.
It’s one of the most closely watched trend signals in any market because it has historically preceded some of Bitcoin’s larger rallies. But it’s also a lagging indicator built entirely from past prices, and when the two averages are trading close together, as Bitcoin’s are right now, the signal can toggle on and off within a single session as intraday swings tug at the average.
That’s exactly what happened today: a push to $79,837 nudged the 50-day EMA above the 200-day, and the retreat to $77,438 pulled it back below.
For daily chart watchers, today’s episode is a useful reminder about how thin some golden crosses really are. When the two moving averages sit close together, as they do here, a single volatile session can push the crossover back and forth before it settles. Today’s daily candle is still open, so this reading could flip again by the close.
Trend strength, though, remains firm regardless of which side of the cross price lands on.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, tracks trend strength regardless of direction. And today’s reading lands at 45, comfortably above the 25 threshold that separates a real trend from noise, with positive directional movement still outpacing negative.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, with scores above 70 signaling overbought and below 30 oversold. Bitcoin is at 55.5 and still on the bullish side of neutral, which means bulls have reason to be optimistic.
The 4-hour chart: Still bullish, but tired
Unlike the daily, the 4-hour chart never lost its golden cross. The 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, keeping the broader bullish structure that first formed in late August intact. But almost everything else on the 4-hour timeframe has cooled off.
RSI has dropped to 43.3, into bearish territory. The Squeeze Momentum indicator, compressed for days, just fired, with volatility expanding 3.95%—typically what happens right as a sharp move gets underway, in this case to the downside.
ADX on the 4-hour chart sits at 25.1, barely above the 25 threshold, a sign the intraday trend is far weaker than the one showing up on the daily.
The bigger picture still leans bullish. The 4-hour chart hasn’t wavered since late August, and daily ADX at 45 confirms a real trend is in place even as the moving-average label flips back and forth on a single volatile session.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.
