As newly mined supply becomes increasingly insignificant relative to the existing market, Woo argued that the halving’s ability to dictate $BTC’s broader price cycle weakens. Instead, the asset may begin moving more closely with TradFi’s six-to-eight-year short-term debt cycle.
The halving framework worked remarkably well for much of bitcoin’s history. Now, though, the market structure has changed dramatically, perhaps mostly from the US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Current data shows that these financial products hold close to 1.3 million $BTC, which is over 6% of the circulating supply. Public companies with at least 1,000 $BTC currently own over a million units.
Together, ETFs and those corporate treasuries controlled almost 12% of circulating $BTC – vastly more than miners now create annually.
Others who have supported the narrative that the four-year cycle is dead include Arthur Hayes, who claimed in 2025 that traders focus too heavily on it, and Fidelity Digital Assets. In a report from last year, the analysts questioned whether $BTC’s maturing market could produce more gradual rallies and corrections rather than the violent boom-and-bust cycles of the past.
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Not Everyone Is Convinced
Galaxy Research examined the same question in June this year, but concluded something different – $BTC’s four-year cycle remains visible in the data. The researchers noted that bitcoin again peaked in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving – precisely within the historical window.
The difference is that each cycle is becoming less extreme. Bitcoin’s previous bear markets produced drawdowns of approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, while the decline to the July 1 low was considerably milder at just over 53%.
