Strap in, we’re gonna dive into some technical analysis.
Bitcoin broke below $60,000 on Monday. Although it has since regained that level, there is ongoing speculation about the next support line, with some wondering if the price could drop even further.
John Glover, chief investment officer at Ledn, spoke to Blockworks about some of the technical levels to watch. He said the next threshold would be $55,000 or $56,000; prices we last saw back at the beginning of May.
If bitcoin falls below that level, then keep an eye on $49,000.
Read more: On the Margin Newsletter: How low BTC’s price might go after Monday’s dip
Despite the volatility, Glover remains optimistic about the overall environment.
“I think that there’s going to be inflationary pressures in the fall that will drive bitcoin higher. I think there’s going to be the [Securities and Exchange Commission] approval of [spot ether ETFs], which probably will be towards the end of the summer, which is going to drive prices higher,” Glover said.
“Then there’s going to be some exogenous shock that we don’t even know about, but I think it’s probably going to drive prices back up. But, really, we all have to recognize that we’re in the very early stages of adoption of bitcoin by the greater investor marketplace,” he continued.
Read more: Bitcoin may be in a ‘sell in May and go away’ phase: Analyst
His analysis is based on the Elliott Wave theory, which examines recurring long-term price patterns that result from changes in investor psychology and sentiment. The theory posits that markets move in predictable waves that reflect the collective mood of investors. If you’re a nerd — like me — it’s an interesting way to gauge a longer-term outlook by observing how history tends to repeat itself.
Elliott Wave theory posits a total of five waves. Based on Glover’s assessment, we’re most likely at wave three of five. Bitcoin’s definitely gone through waves one and two, as tracked by the chart. Wave three typically indicates that another pullback is necessary before bitcoin can gain the momentum to move higher.
The consensus generally is that once we get through the summer, it could be much smoother sailing from there (key words: could be).
Read more: Why $100k for BTC in 2024 is no pipe dream
In the Empire newsletter, we previously discussed bitcoin going above $80,000 by year-end, based on multiple predictions from analysts.
“My core case [is] that I believe we’re going to $85,000 to $95,000 by year end, but I don’t think there’s going to be a catalyst to do that until sometime towards the end of the summer, which will likely be an ETF approval for Ethereum by the SEC, which will drive all asset prices higher,” Glover said.
We could potentially see approvals for those ETFs by early July. Updated registration statements were filed just last week, likely signaling that the SEC and issuers are close.
Glover’s prediction can be seen in either of the waves below.
Glover’s Elliott Wave analysis of bitcoin
Glover pointed out that at this stage, bitcoin is trading like a tech stock. Think Meta or Tesla a few years ago. He says we’ll see it pull back, but then recover just like it did earlier this week.
But Glover’s focus is not limited to bitcoin. He also remarked on why we haven’t seen the kind of explosive growth for altcoins that investors have grown accustomed to in past cycles.
This can be attributed in part to the shift in investor demographics this cycle, with highly speculative retail investors being in the minority. Clearly, institutions and larger corporations, like BlackRock, have taken center stage with their products. Given the events of 2022, this is not particularly surprising.
Read more from our opinion section: Don’t hold your breath for an altcoin ETF
Glover ultimately thinks altcoins may not bounce back this cycle, outside of the top five or so.
“The traditional investors are not buying altcoins, and it’s just the retail guys who are buying altcoins, and a lot of them got really badly hurt in 2023. I think a lot of those people who used to be more than willing to speculate like crazy in the altcoin marketplace aren’t there now, they got hurt badly, and now they’re just like, ‘I don’t want to feel that pain again.’ So I think it’s just volumes, and rightly so,” Glover said.
So keep those seatbelts fastened as we buckle down for a cruel summer. If we can get through it, there will likely be better days ahead.
A shorter version of this article first appeared in Tuesday’s Empire Newsletter. Sign up here to never miss an issue.
