Since January 2020, bitcoin has moved an average of just 2.1% on nonfarm payrolls (NFP) days, which is consistent with $BTC‘s average daily volatility on non-NFP days in recent years according to data tracked by CoinDesk.
Across all 79 NFP releases in that period, $BTC’s intraday reaction has been remarkably split: prices closed higher on 39 of those days and lower on 40. That’s a coin flip in terms of direction. (The total is 79 rather than 80 reference months because the October 2025 employment report was never published as a standalone release.)
The size of the moves, however, has varied, depending on the state of the broader market. For instance, the sharpest single-day reaction came on Feb. 4, 2022, when bitcoin jumped 11.4% following the January 2022 jobs report. Barely a month later, on March 4, 2022, the very next NFP release delivered the opposite outcome, a 7.8% drop. 2022 was a highly volatile bear market year.
The takeaway is that, for day traders, NFP has little predictive value and is a non-event, no different from any other random weekday.
Will today be any different? That possibility cannot be ruled out. Recently, Treasury yields have emerged as a focal point for all markets, including crypto. If NFP triggers a big move in Treasury yields, $BTC and other markets may follow. Stay alert.
