Brazil election is likely to require a second round
Several final polls have placed Lula ahead in the first round without giving him enough support to avoid another vote. CNT/MDA put Lula at 47.8% of valid votes and Bolsonaro at 42.1%, while Reuters reported that Datafolha, Quaest, CNT/MDA and AtlasIntel surveys all pointed toward a likely runoff.
The latest Datafolha runoff test was even tighter, with Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46%. Both figures fell within the survey’s margin of error, leaving the potential Oct. 25 contest statistically tied.
Prediction markets have presented a different picture from opinion polling. UOL reported on Oct. 1 that Polymarket contracts implied roughly a 62% chance of an eventual Bolsonaro victory, compared with approximately 37% for Lula. Kalshi showed a similar split. The figures represent prices in prediction markets and are not surveys of Brazilian voters.
Crypto policy has not been one of the defining issues of the presidential campaign, but the next administration will inherit a regulatory system that changed considerably during Lula’s current term.
Lula’s government has tightened Brazil’s crypto rules
Under the current administration, the Central Bank has moved virtual-asset companies inside its formal regulatory perimeter. Resolution BCB 520 established operating requirements for virtual-asset service providers, covering areas including governance, customer protection, internal controls and anti-money laundering procedures. The rules took effect on Feb. 2.
Companies providing covered crypto services must go through the Central Bank authorization process established under Resolution 519. A separate foreign-exchange rule brought several crypto activities under Brazil’s FX framework, including international transfers using virtual assets and transactions involving assets referenced to fiat currencies.
Regulators tightened the system again just days before the election. Resolution 588, published Sept. 23 and effective Oct. 1, requires covered financial institutions to make specific reports to Coaf when virtual assets worth at least $10,000 move to or from self-custody wallets. The measure creates a reporting obligation; it does not prohibit self-custody or impose a $10,000 transaction ceiling.
As crypto.news reported on the new self-custody rule, the requirement sits within Brazil’s existing anti-money laundering framework and is separate from taxation.
Resolution 589 changed another deadline. Starting Nov. 6, institutions regulated by the Central Bank generally cannot facilitate virtual-asset market operations with service providers that are not authorized to operate in Brazil, subject to the exceptions contained in the rule.
The compliance burden is already changing the local industry. In related coverage, crypto.news reported that Lemon is leaving Brazil after concluding that the licensing capital requirements were too costly for its local operation. The company plans to close remaining Brazilian accounts on Oct. 16.
Flávio Bolsonaro has not filed a clear crypto plan
A Bolsonaro victory would introduce more uncertainty about the direction of crypto regulation because his official presidential program does not set out a dedicated cryptocurrency policy.
The TSE’s searchable version of Flávio Bolsonaro’s government program covers tax cuts, fiscal reform, privatization, banking, the digital economy and a proposed regulatory rollback. The index contains no specific entry for cryptocurrency, stablecoins or virtual assets.
His economic program calls for lower taxes in some areas and a review of regulations, including what it describes as a “revogaço regulatório,” or regulatory repeal effort. Applying those proposals specifically to the Central Bank’s crypto framework would be speculative because the filed program does not say that the virtual-asset regulations would be repealed or amended.
The absence of a crypto-specific proposal creates a different starting point from Lula’s position. A Lula victory would leave an administration that introduced the current rules in office, though it would not guarantee that existing policy remains unchanged. Bolsonaro has not publicly committed through his TSE-filed program to reversing, expanding or replacing the crypto framework.
Stablecoin taxes remain unfinished after election-year pause
Tax policy is one area where the election could affect what happens next. Reuters reported in March that Finance Minister Dario Durigan planned to delay a public consultation on crypto taxation as the government avoided politically difficult tax proposals before the presidential vote.
The consultation was expected to consider the tax treatment of crypto flows, including transactions involving stablecoins. No final tax created by that consultation was enacted before the postponement. As crypto.news previously reported, the proposal was shelved during the election period, leaving its future treatment unresolved.
Reporting requirements have continued independently of that tax debate. Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service introduced DeCripto under Normative Instruction 2,291, with transactions carried out from July 2026 falling under the new reporting system. The framework aligns Brazil’s disclosures with the OECD Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework.
Stablecoins account for a large part of the activity being reported. The Federal Revenue Service said in July that stablecoins represented roughly 80% of declared crypto transaction volume, having grown from only 3.5% in 2019.
Brazil’s Central Bank has separately tightened supervision of stablecoin-linked transfers and crypto activity connected with foreign exchange. Its rules require providers to identify owners of self-custody wallets in covered FX transactions and maintain processes for checking the origin and destination of virtual assets.
Brazil now ranks first for global crypto adoption
The election is taking place in what Chainalysis now ranks as the world’s leading country for grassroots cryptocurrency adoption.
Chainalysis’ 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index put Brazil first overall, ahead of the U.S., Nigeria and Japan. The analytics firm estimated Brazil’s crypto economy at $252.5 billion and ranked the country among the top four across service flows, peer-to-peer activity, cross-border flows and on-chain balances.
Brazil did not rank first in any one category. Chainalysis placed it second in cross-border flows, third in service flows, third in its domestic peer-to-peer economy and fourth in on-chain balances. Its combined performance produced the top overall ranking under the company’s revised 2026 methodology.
The figures are Chainalysis estimates based partly on on-chain information and service web-traffic data. They should not be read as an official government measurement of all cryptocurrency transactions inside Brazil.
The scale of the market helps explain why compliance deadlines have immediate consequences for exchanges and users. As crypto.news reported in September, industry estimates suggested that only a small portion of crypto companies then operating in Brazil were expected to pursue Central Bank authorization.
What happens after the Oct. 4 Brazil election
The first immediate step is electoral. The TSE will begin issuing ballot-box results after voting ends at 5 p.m. Brasília time. If neither Lula nor Bolsonaro, nor another candidate, passes 50% of valid votes, the two highest finishers will contest the presidency on Oct. 25.
Existing cryptocurrency rules remain in force during the election process. A change of president does not itself cancel Central Bank resolutions, Receita Federal reporting requirements or rules already scheduled to take effect.
The regulatory calendar continues soon after any potential runoff. From Nov. 6, Central Bank-regulated financial and payment institutions face restrictions on dealing with virtual-asset firms that lack authorization to operate in Brazil under Resolution 589.
From Jan. 1, 2027, separate Central Bank requirements will expand supervisory data covering customer balances, custody positions, proof of reserves and assets committed to staking. Another anti-fraud measure scheduled for the same date requires a 24-hour precautionary retention period for certain virtual-asset transfers above $10,000 to overseas entities or self-custody wallets while providers conduct additional risk checks.
