Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, is trading just under $65,000, up 4% in the past week. While this increases expectations for a continued rise in $BTC, one analyst has indicated a bearish forecast.
At this point, experienced analyst and commodities trader Peter Brandt argued that the downside risk for Bitcoin has not yet disappeared, pointing out that the downside risks persist and warning investors against the possibility of a new decline.
Brandt’s latest assessment suggests that Bitcoin may retest lower levels in the coming period.
Veteran analyst Brandt states that the probability of further declines in Bitcoin is higher and that it is possible for $BTC to retest the $58,000 level.
However, Brandt says he hasn’t made a definitive prediction for the decline, that he hasn’t bet on $BTC yet, but if he had, he would have predicted a decline.
In the chart that Brandt shared on X, one of the most important levels he highlighted was the $58,000 region. This is because the analyst had previously pointed out the possibility of Bitcoin falling to the $58,000-$62,000 range in his earlier analyses.
Brandt stated that $BTC could retest this region if the technical outlook deteriorates, and he believes that selling pressure could increase, leading to a retest of $58,000, especially if the current chart breaks downwards.
Brandt had previously stated in his analysis that a decline could occur following the head-and-shoulders pattern that formed between April and June, and that $BTC could fall to around $58,000.
Bitcoin Reaches Critical Threshold: $57,600!
Brandt stated that the bearish bet for $BTC is more likely, while on-chain analyst Axel Adler also noted that there is no complete capitulation in $BTC.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score, the analyst noted that the MVRV Z-Score has fallen significantly below its long-term average of 1.69, to between 0.40 and 0.41.
While Bitcoin’s value has fallen well below its historical average, the market has not entered a classic capitulation and bottoming out phase.
At this point, the analyst identified $57,600 as a key threshold where the market structure could deteriorate further. Adler considers the adjusted price of $BTC at $57,600 a critical threshold for downward movement, stating that a drop below this level could further weaken the market structure and increase selling pressure.
On the positive side, the analyst pointed to $72,000 as a potential target for the rise. The analyst argues that a sustainable recovery above $72,000 for $BTC and a return to the average MVRV Z-Score of 1.69 could be a significant signal that a recovery has begun.
*This is not investment advice.
