Köymen says options price roughly $80,000 to $87,000 over the coming month, and on-chain cost-basis data draws much the same box. Support sits at $80,000 to $81,500, where the average US spot ETF buyer breaks even, and resistance sits near $88,000, the break-even for buyers from six to 12 months ago.
Below $80,000, the next floor is around $78,000, the average cost basis of active investors.
Glassnode’s Oct. 14 report estimates the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin held by US spot ETFs near $81,500, which describes the funds’ aggregate holdings, a measure separate from each shareholder’s personal entry price.
It puts the six-to-12-month cohort’s cost basis near $88,000 and the True Market Mean near $78,000, and it finds the largest concentrated Binance spot bids around $80,000. Bitcoin dipped below the ETF cost basis on Oct. 8 and Oct. 13 and closed back above it both days.
That points to recurring demand at the zone and gives the range an identifiable economic reason.
Leverage has cooled
Köymen said thin spot volume makes price easier to move, “but funding has cooled and recent long liquidations have already cleared much of the excess leverage, so a self-feeding sell-off is less likely unless $80,000 breaks cleanly.”
Glassnode’s data supports that read, with modeled liquidation levels around the current price down more than 20% in a week and long-term holder realized losses about 85% below their Aug. 12 peak.
CoinMarketCap research reported that Bitcoin futures open interest fell 6% over the past week, while broader crypto open interest rose 15%. Glassnode shows liquidation clusters just below $80,000 and near $88,000, so reduced leverage lowers the expected severity of a shock while a clean break of support remains a trigger.
Lewis Huang, analyst at Bitget, framed the same line in price terms in a note:
“A confirmed close below it could signal a breakdown from the current consolidation range and increase the risk of further near-term downside.”
Glassnode counted nearly $3 billion of ETF inflows from Sept. 21 to Oct. 6, and Farside Investors’ data since then shows a reversal. A net $859 million flowed out over six sessions from Oct. 7 through Oct. 14, including $261.4 million on Oct. 14.
Bitcoin is holding near a cost-basis zone while redemptions hit the vehicles tied to that zone. Either remaining investors and spot bids are absorbing the selling, or the market grows more vulnerable as new demand fades.
The Fed decides before voters do
Köymen said what breaks the range “is a catalyst.” Back-to-back hot prints, with core PPI up 0.7% on top of a firmer CPI, have made the Oct. 28 Fed meeting two-way.
Futures priced hike odds near 50-50 immediately upon CPI and now lean toward a hold, with estimates of roughly 29% to 34% across Oct. 15 reports. September PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, lands on Oct. 29, a day later.
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sept. 16, and its September projections put the end-2026 policy rate at 4.1% against 3.8% in June. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks in Bangkok on Oct. 16, his last appearance before the blackout, and Köymen expects his remarks to move markets little.
Huang called Thursday’s PPI “a key near-term risk,” since a stronger print would reinforce worries about additional tightening and could weigh on Bitcoin “through higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and weaker risk appetite.”
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.087%, and the dollar retreated from an 18-month high, as safe-haven bond demand tied to worries over AI-company financing offset inflation.
Köymen noted that yields near their 2002 high and a firm dollar have historically weighed on Bitcoin, but it has held up well and trades above its September-high level. He said that the rate path drives price, and any single day’s ETF flow carries less weight.
Gasoline supplied more than half of the monthly CPI increase, and energy accounted for more than 80% of the rise in final-demand producer goods prices, with producer gasoline up 20.3%.
A Fed that treats the energy surge as temporary has room to hold, and the 0.7% core PPI gain weighs against that reading.
Where the Bitcoin range goes from here
Köymen said the Nov. 3 elections add event risk, though historically other forces have driven Bitcoin’s longer-term direction.
A CryptoQuant analysis shows Bitcoin gaining 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% over the 12 months from the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms, and falling about 45.5% in the first month once the 2018 election had passed.
Three cycles under different monetary regimes are too few to isolate an election effect. Huang added that markets will watch whether President Donald Trump continues to signal supportive measures for crypto, and that absent further crypto-specific policy catalysts, “inflation will remain the primary driver.”
A volatility check shows the box is narrower than the full distribution of outcomes. Using 35.46% 30-day implied volatility reported by Derivasys and an $83,000 starting price, a one-standard-deviation move through Nov. 3 spans roughly $76,300 to $89,700.
Bitcoin could temporarily trade below $80,000 and finish the period inside the box, making $80,000 to $88,000 the zone where supply and demand concentrate, separate from any corridor options guarantee.
If the Fed holds on Oct. 28, guidance avoids a hawkish surprise and ETF outflows stabilize, the range survives into the midterms. A move through $88,000 would need new demand to absorb supply from holders returning to break-even, and short liquidations near that level could accelerate a breakout that lasts when spot buying joins it.
If inflation persistence lifts expected rates and Bitcoin closes below $79,960, Huang’s breakdown scenario opens, and $78,000 becomes the next test with the remaining long liquidations just below $80,000 in play.
The drop from $80,000 to $78,000 is 2.5%, and the larger risk is a $78,000 floor that fails to attract buyers.
The Oct. 28 decision, PCE on Oct. 29, and the Nov. 3 vote fall in sequence, and the first two matter more than the third in deciding whether the range survives.
