After six months of sideways chop, multiple on-chain indicators say Bitcoin may finally be prepared for an epic price breakout, analysts say.
These predictions would line up with separate forecasts of an upcoming bull market based on seasonal factors, with Bitcoin soon to transition from one of its worst-to-best months on record.
Bitcoin’s Bottom Signals
As noted by CryptoQuant author Amr Taha, Bitcoin’s Puell multiple has reached a low of 0.4 for the first time since the end of 2022 – the absolute bottom of Bitcoin’s last bear market following the collapse of FTX.
The Puell multiple is a ratio comparing daily BTC issuance in USD terms to its 365-day moving average. It’s a measure of miner profitability and is often used to spot market tops and bottoms since miner behavior can significantly impact price movements.
“The Puell Multiple is nearing levels where it historically signaled buying opportunities,” the analyst wrote. “Investors looking for a long-term accumulation phase might interpret the current Puell Multiple near 0.4 as a sign that Bitcoin is undervalued, or at least nearing a market bottom.”
Bitcoin’s hash rate tapped a new all-time high earlier this week, meaning it’s more competitive than ever for miners to mine a Bitcoin block. Meanwhile, declining BTC prices and April’s BTC halving have massively reduced the financial rewards linked to successfully mining a block.
Miner troubles aren’t the only bottom signal: another CryptoQuant author – Axel Adler Jr. – wrote on Thursday the number of active addresses on-chain has fallen to lows last seen in July of 2021, shortly following China’s mining ban.
Preparing For October
Finally, Bitcoin’s average perpetual futures funding rate flipped negative on Wednesday for the first time since September 2023. In a bull market, Adler says this is a bullish signal.
“I think the market will make a decision in the next couple of weeks,” he said. “I don’t expect a major drop unless a black swan event occurs. After that, we need to rise higher and test 70K.”
Bitwise published a memo on Tuesday explaining that while Bitcoin typically performs poorly in September, the following two months are usually some of its best-performing periods. October, for example, averages 29.5% gains for BTC.
Central banks are also lowering interest rates right now, which is typically positive for all financial assets. The ECB lowered its deposit facility rate by another 12 basis points on Thursday.
