Prediction markets allow people to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of future events rather than purchasing traditional financial assets. Traders can speculate on everything from elections and economic data to sports championships, with prices shifting as expectations change.
The World Cup, one of the world’s largest sporting events, created an ideal environment for rapid trading activity as every match generated new opportunities.
Trading Activity Rises to New Heights
The numbers logged in June and July, from Dune.com’s prediction marketplace dashboard, illustrate just how dramatic the increase became. Total prediction market notional volume reached $54.09 billion in July, up from $49.95 billion in June, representing an increase of roughly 8.3% in a single month.
Kalshi dominated the market, processing $38.65 billion, or approximately 71.5% of total volume. Polymarket generated $7.89 billion, while Polymarket (US) added another $4.86 billion, giving the combined Polymarket ecosystem nearly $12.75 billion, or about 24% of monthly activity. Opinion, predict.fun, Crypto.com, Limitless, and smaller platforms accounted for the remaining share, highlighting how concentrated the industry has become between Polymarket and Kalshi.
Captured Revenue Across Platforms
Higher trading activity naturally translated into higher platform revenue. Estimated prediction market fees climbed to approximately $327.67 million during July, Dune.com stats show.
Kalshi again led the industry, generating roughly $252.92 million, or about 77% of all estimated fees. Polymarket produced $39.72 million, while Polymarket (US) collected $29.52 million. Predict added $4.44 million, Limitless generated just over $1 million, and Opinion contributed about $50,000. The fee breakdown closely mirrored trading activity, reinforcing Kalshi’s commanding position.
Accelerated User Participation
Growing interest was equally evident in transaction counts. Platforms processed nearly 365.92 million transactions during July as traders continuously adjusted positions throughout the tournament.
Kalshi handled 246.73 million transactions, representing roughly 67.4% of total activity. Polymarket recorded 62.03 million, while Polymarket (US) processed 38.13 million. Together, the two Polymarket platforms accounted for roughly 100 million transactions, or about 27% of all market activity. Predict.fun contributed another 16.74 million, while the remaining platforms handled comparatively small volumes.
Expanded Capital Commitments
The World Cup also encouraged traders to keep more money committed to open positions. Open interest, which measures the total value of active contracts that have not yet settled, approached $1.91 billion during early July.
Kalshi held approximately $1.30 billion, equal to about 68% of total open interest. Polymarket accounted for $419.21 million, while Polymarket (US) contributed another $154.30 million. Predict.fun held $23.76 million, with Opinion, Limitless and other platforms representing only a small fraction of outstanding positions.
Why Sports Matter
Unlike financial markets, prediction markets thrive on uncertainty and constant information. Every goal, injury, referee decision and tournament upset immediately changes the perceived probability of future outcomes, encouraging traders to revise positions throughout the competition. The World Cup’s nearly monthlong schedule created a continuous stream of tradable events that kept activity elevated from the opening match through the final.
The tournament also broadened participation beyond traditional prediction market users. Sports fans who might never trade contracts tied to inflation or elections suddenly had familiar events to follow, increasing liquidity and drawing additional capital into the ecosystem.
What Comes Next
The World Cup demonstrated that global sporting events can dramatically expand prediction market participation far beyond election betting and other subjects, producing gains across nearly every industry metric. Whether those elevated levels persist after the tournament concludes will become one of the sector’s biggest questions.
Investors and platform operators will now watch upcoming sporting calendars, major political events, and regulatory developments to determine whether prediction markets can retain their expanded user base or whether activity gradually returns to pre-tournament levels. With the World Cup ended, prediction market open interest has cooled significantly.
