In 2024-2025, there was a wave of buying bitcoin by spot ETFs and bitcoin treasury companies. Bitcoin went down approximately 53%. So far.
Now, as the price is up around 25% in a month, we see “this time is different” posts more often again, and the recurring trend is that drawdowns are getting shallower each time, as seen from the examples above.
The Price of Smaller $BTC Crashes
This week, Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, posted a chart indexing the price of bitcoin to 100 at each cycle high, showing the current cycle has a notably shallower drawdown than previous cycles.
Meanwhile, $BTC analyst Willy Woo argued that bitcoin is moving from its four-year cycle to a 6-8-year cycle as halving supply shocks weaken, becoming more aligned with TradFi short-term debt cycles.
While the latter claim is impossible to prove yet, should $BTC manage to stay above this year’s lows, this would indeed prove that the price crashes have become less severe. However, there’s another side of the same coin — $BTC rallies have also become smaller.
So far, in previous cycles, gains from the bottom to the next all-time high were roughly 580x, 130x, 22x, and 8x. Hence, if institutional buyers and ETFs are the reason why $BTC keeps falling less each time, they might also be the reason why it’ll climb less in each cycle, if cycles in the bitcoin market still exist.
Another bitcoin analyst, James Check, looking at $BTC production costs by miners, recently also pointed out that while the bitcoin price floor is rising every cycle, the price ceiling has been more steady.
“Tops have approached the 32x multiple ($313k today), but if this trend of rising floors continues, eventually the floor meets the top…and then s*** gets really weird!” Check said.
This Time Is Different and the Same
Therefore, to summarize, what hasn’t changed for bitcoin price is the pattern observed over the course of this market’s history: new buyers are coming in, price rallies and then crashes, but both drawdowns and rallies are becoming smaller. Hence, in a way, from the perspective of the market structure and price changes, this time is different indeed, but the pattern has stayed essentially the same.
Also, so far, it has all happened more or less on the same four-year schedule, while the market can’t agree on whether the four-year cycle is dead or whether there are any hard reasons behind it besides its legend, which has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. With each Bitcoin halving, when the supply of new $BTC is halved, this “supply shock” has become so small that it can barely move the market.
For example, bitcoin analyst Jesse Myers says that $BTC may have just begun a 2-3-year bull market, which would be consistent with the four-year cycle legend. Myers admits that it’s harder to say where the next peak might be (if that happens at all).
“The last bull market delivered an 8x from the bear-market low. An 8x from this bear-market low ($58k) would be $464k, but even a 4x would be $232k/$BTC,” the analyst concluded.
Bitcoin’s Growing Pains and Recycled Hopium
However, the absolute majority of current bitcoin analysis is based on analyzing the market — buyers and sellers, capital rotation, charts, changes in global liquidity, etc. — or things that have little to do with Bitcoin as a network and bitcoin as an asset.
Therefore, as both mature, understanding and adoption improve (beyond $BTC as an investable asset), this might become an additional catalyst that could propel the bitcoin price higher than the historically weakening rallies now suggest. In either case, the scale of understanding and adoption is still unknown, while multiple questions are still unresolved. These also include quantum resistance, $BTC payments competition with other payment rails, and incentives for bitcoin miners to keep mining bitcoin, among others.
In the meantime, while the market and the whole Bitcoin industry go through their growing pains (as it “monetizes, cycle by cycle,” per Myers), we’ll keep going through the pains of reading the same recycled themes from the past almost 18 years.
Therefore, you can already mute posts that include “this is the last chance to buy cheap / the window is closing,” “$BTC as everyday mainstream money is imminent,” “bitcoin will flip gold soon,” “fiat collapse is imminent,” “the supercycle incoming,” “nation-state adoption will cascade quickly,” “this is the last chance to front-run institutions.” None of that has materialized yet, and in that sense, nothing is different.
