Bitcoin spot volume hit its lowest level since 2019 as Treasuries out-yielded the crypto carry trade for the second time on record, according to Glassnode’s weekly report.
Why Institutions Are Sitting In Cash Instead Of Bitcoin?
Glassnode analyst Frederik Theissen said in the report that three-month futures basis has paid less than a two-year Treasury since February, meaning institutional desks earn more sitting in cash than running the crypto carry trade.
Only one other stretch on record lasted this long, from August 2022 into January 2023, and that one ended at the cycle low.
The downstream effect shows up across every surface.
Spot volume, exchange flows, and ETF demand have all gone quiet at the same time, and Glassnode traced all three back to that single spread making cash the better trade.
What The On-Chain Data Shows?
Bitcoin is currently trading inside the single heaviest cost-basis cluster on the chart — the band from roughly $62,000 to $68,000 where more coins last changed hands than anywhere else.
Half belongs to short-term holders sitting underwater on this year’s decline.
The other half belongs to long-term holders who have held through it patiently.
The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $69,000 remains the line that decides the next leg higher.
Above that sits a long-term holder supply wall between $83,000 and $86,000. Reclaiming $69,000 on returning volume is the first condition for a regime change, with the ETF channel needing to turn from idle to active buying alongside it.
How Deep Is This Bear Compared To Prior Cycles?
Glassnode said this is the shallowest bear on record by depth, with no prior cycle keeping price this close to the 200-day moving average through its drawdown.
By time, Bitcoin has now spent about three-quarters as long below the 200-day average as the typical prior bear, with most prior cycles running considerably longer.
A drawdown this shallow has not yet served the time its predecessors served, which points to patience rather than calling the low, particularly for anyone using a four-year cycle framework.
What The Options Market Is Saying?
Downside protection collapsed to almost nothing on July 21, the same session Bitcoin printed its local high after the June recovery rally.
Hedges were sold into the top and the deleveraging that followed left the market exposed to the slide that came next.
Moreover, the put/call ratio bottomed at its lowest point for the year on that session and has climbed hard as price fell, with perpetual funding staying below neutral all month.
Options Market Summary
Downside protection collapsed to almost nothing on July 21, the same session Bitcoin printed its local high after the June recovery rally.
Hedges were sold into the top and the deleveraging that followed left the market exposed to the slide that came next.
Moreover, the put/call ratio bottomed at its lowest point for the year on that session and has climbed hard as price fell, with perpetual funding staying below neutral all month.
Photo via Shutterstock
