- Ethereum failed 3 times at $4K but now shows signs of a possible move higher after touching support.
- The chart shows ETH bouncing from a key green zone, which could be the missing step before a breakout.
- Traders now watch ETH closely at $3.8K, as historical behavior suggests $4K could be passed this time.
Ethereum (ETH) is approaching the $4,000 resistance level after reclaiming a major trendline, based on analysis from Benjamin Cowen. The crypto asset had previously failed to break past this psychological level on three separate occasions. But Cowen’s annotated chart suggests the narrative could now shift as ETH “goes home” to its long-term channel.
Source: X
The weekly chart shared on July 31, 2025, shows Ethereum currently trading around $3,835. A horizontal resistance line drawn at $4,000 represents the key threshold. Historical price action shows ETH was rejected at this zone multiple times when it failed to touch its home base. The “home,” according to Cowen, refers to a lower trendline that acted as structural support across the broader cycle.
Now that ETH has revisited this trendline and bounced strongly, Cowen suggests it “should break $4K since it went home.” This reaffirms a bullish outlook as the asset enters a critical technical juncture.
Chart Analysis Highlights a Potential Breakout
Cowen’s chart, built on the Kraken exchange data, covers Ethereum’s weekly candles from mid-2021 to July 2025. It shows three major rejections at the $4,000 level—each marked clearly with arrows and annotations. These failed attempts occurred when ETH approached $4K without first revisiting the green ascending channel.
The highlighted green zone represents a long-term accumulation band or support base. ETH deviated above it multiple times, but only now appears to have returned and bounced off convincingly. The recent reclaim of this zone was illustrated with the phrase “ETH goes home,” signaling a reset or retest of macro structure.
From a technical perspective, revisiting and rebounding from such foundational support can create favorable conditions for a breakout. Cowen’s caption humorously yet clearly implies this time could be different. “ETH should break $4K since it went home,” the chart reads.
If that happens, ETH would need to maintain momentum above $4,000 to escape its previous cycle ceiling. The clean technical setup could potentially push it toward new all-time highs if demand persists.
Community Reactions and Broader Implications
Cowen’s post attracted considerable attention, gaining over 295,000 views and nearly 6,600 likes on X (formerly Twitter). Community responses indicate optimism mixed with curiosity about the next move. One user asked, “What if it needs to go deeper home before it breaks $4K?” Cowen replied, “My guess is that the next time it goes back ‘home’ will be after it goes to new all time highs.”
This reply frames the current price movement within a broader cyclical pattern. The assumption is that the base has been established, and upside potential is now more likely.
The $4,000 level remains a major resistance not just technically, but also psychologically. In past cycles, Ethereum’s failure to close above this level often resulted in large corrections.
Given this backdrop, Cowen’s interpretation—though stylized—brings attention to the structural behavior of ETH over time. Could Ethereum finally overcome its long-standing $4,000 ceiling now that it has touched home?
Historical Relevance of the $4K Level
In early 2022, ETH surged near $4,000 but was swiftly rejected. It made similar attempts later that year and again in early 2024. Each of these rallies was stopped at roughly the same level, reinforcing its role as a firm resistance.
Unlike previous attempts, the current price action is backed by a return to a lower ascending channel. This return, according to Cowen, completes the structural requirement often needed before a breakout can sustain.
Should ETH breach $4K in the coming days or weeks, it may validate the setup that Cowen has shared. Volume, market sentiment, and broader crypto conditions will now play a critical role.
With Ethereum’s trajectory at a potential turning point, the market watches closely. The setup is technical, but the sentiment is now sharply focused on whether “home” was the missing step all along.
