As America prepares for yet another presidential election, market participants are preparing for a period of volatility that is typical during the election cycle. Although the election could have implications for different investment portfolios. However, Bitcoin, the leading digital currency, is indifferent to this matter.
Looking into historical numbers, Bitcoin does not care about election winners. Lets dive much deeper into the numbers and historical data.
Republican or Democrat, Bitcoin Always Wins
Over time, Bitcoin has shown its ability to bounce back, no matter who ends up in the White House. When we look at how Bitcoin’s price moved after the 2016 and 2020 elections, we see a clear trend: big price jumps happen after these events reaching their highest point about a year after the election.
Let’s take a look at some examples. During the 2016 U.S. election when the Republicans won, BTC price was worth $703. By December 2017, its price shot up to almost $20,000. Similarly, on November 5, 2020, BTC was trading at $15,579. But within a year after the Democrats won—by November 2021—it came close to hitting $69,000.
Bitcoin followed a similar pattern even back in 2012. On November 5, 2012, it traded at just $10.80, but by the end of 2013, its price hit $1,250. Although history doesn’t always repeat itself, these trends show Bitcoin’s upward momentum after election cycles, with each run having its own unique features.
This repeating pattern suggests that Bitcoin stays independent of changes in political leadership. It moves to its own rhythm while benefiting investors who stick with it for the long haul.
Jake Gagain, a YouTube crypto commentator, has emphasized this point.
“Bitcoin tends to reach all-time high prices the year after an election. Go back and look at 2021 and 2017. Regardless of the winner, BTC has its own momentum.”
Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Gains
Political events can cause short-term ups and downs in financial markets, but for Bitcoin, this chatter fades as its long-term patterns take over.
Matthew Sigel, who leads digital-assets research at VanEck thinks that no matter who wins the next election, Trump or Harris, the new government will help Bitcoin, he said when talking to MarketWatch.
Also, numbers from Glassnode show that during times of political unrest, Bitcoin’s long-term owners stay calm. They keep their Bitcoin trusting it to handle short-term market jitters.
One reason Bitcoin does well after elections is market clarity. Money markets, both old and new, do best when things are clear. When everyone knows who won the election be it a Democrat or Republican, investors feel better about putting money in for the long haul.
Jake Gagain explains,
“While I do think that there is a better candidate for cryptocurrency and BTC this cycle, I believe that we are bound for a bull run either way.”
Post-Election Bull Run Likely?
Unlike past election seasons when Bitcoin rose from lower prices, BTC had already hit a record high of over $73,700 in March. This breaks from previous bull market patterns.
Sixty-four days before the November 5, 2024 election, BTC traded 21% below its peak. This fall hints that the election results could have an impact on BTC’s future price. We’ll have to wait and see if history repeats itself and drives Bitcoin higher.
