In its latest report, cryptocurrency analytics company Glassnode stated that the short-term outlook for the Bitcoin market is beginning to weaken and investors are adopting a more cautious stance.
According to the report, Bitcoin rose from above $60,000 to over $82,000. However, this rise was followed by a loss of momentum, and the price retreated back towards the $77,000 range. Glassnode noted that sellers have regained control in the short term.
According to company data, selling pressure in the spot market increased significantly. Spot CVD data saw an 848.7% decrease, while spot trading volume increased by 4.2%. This situation may be due to increased short-term trading interest rather than investors’ bullish expectations.
In the futures market, open positions decreased by 2.9%. Glassnode stated that this indicates investors are acting more cautiously in using leverage. Despite this, long position funding payments increased by 136.6%, suggesting that some investors are still expecting an uptrend. However, the sharp 278.7% drop in perpetual CVD data reveals that selling pressure in the market remains strong.
Significant changes were also observed in the options market. A 42.75% increase in the Options 25-Delta Skew data was interpreted as an increased search for hedging against downside risks by investors. However, a 1.7% increase in open options positions and a 124.52% increase in volatility spreads indicated that the market expects more volatile price movements in the coming period.
On the institutional investor side, sentiment from traditional finance sources was noted to be weak. The MVRV ratio in US spot Bitcoin ETFs fell by 6.1%, and net ETF inflows also deteriorated sharply. However, a 7% increase in ETF trading volume indicated continued trading activity in the market.
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Glassnode also noted that on-chain data was giving mixed signals. While the number of active addresses decreased, the increase in Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume indicated that large-scale capital movements were continuing.
The company argued that while long-term investors continue to increase their dominance in the market, the sharp weakening in NUPL and realized profit-loss ratios indicates a decrease in market enthusiasm and that investors are taking more defensive positions.
The Glassnode report concludes by stating that while the overall structure of the Bitcoin market is not yet completely broken, the outlook has softened due to weakening momentum, spot demand, and speculative positions. The report also notes that options traders are seeking greater hedging against downside risks, although stable liquidity conditions and long-term investor strength continue to provide a degree of resilience to the market.
*This is not investment advice.
