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That leaves a paradox inside the market. Global copper inventories still top 1.2 million tonnes, enough on paper to calm any buyer, yet a large share of that metal sits in the United States, drawn across the Pacific by the prospect of new tariffs. Stock that cannot easily reach Chinese ports does nothing to lower the premium Chinese importers pay, so the reading keeps climbing even while headline inventories look comfortable. Unless American warehouses start shipping metal back out, the cost of landing physical copper in China has little reason to fall.
London Futures Sink as Tariffs Pull Metal West
Paper copper has travelled the other way. Three-month futures fell 1.4% on Friday to settle at $14,154.50 a tonne, leaving the benchmark below its September record of $14,875 even as physical buyers keep paying up. The settlement sits about 5% shy of that September peak, a gap that says more about sentiment than about scarcity. Equity holders took the session harder: Southern Copper lost 7.42% and Freeport-McMoRan dropped 5.55% on October 30. Guangzhou Futures Co. blamed the slide on a tech selloff, saying the sharp fall in technology shares had fuelled doubt over returns on artificial intelligence investment, cooled risk appetite and pushed down on the metal. Crude oil at its highest since April added to the defensive mood, and the equity losses in producers were the sharpest risk-off print of the day.
The spread between physical and paper pricing has itself become a measure of scarcity: spot cargoes fetched more than $170 a tonne above three-month futures on Friday. The distortion points back to Washington. Expected tariffs on refined copper have pulled hundreds of thousands of tonnes toward the United States, thinning supply everywhere else, and the White House has yet to rule on a proposed 15% levy from January 2027. Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) analysts argue American stockpiles will stay frozen until the administration clearly steps back from the tariff. SMM still sees the short-term deficit persisting, though an unfavourable Shanghai-to-London price ratio should slow further gains in import premiums. Until that ruling lands, the paper market has a reason to stay heavy: a 15% tariff would keep drawing refined metal into the US and leave the rest of the world short.
Copper itself sits near its ceiling. The live quote stands at $6.54, up 0.15% over 24 hours, and COINOTAG’s composite scoring rates the $6.55 resistance at 100/100, with the $6.45 support below it at 95/100. The daily trend reading is a downtrend and the RSI sits at 45.2, a picture of paper weakness that mirrors Friday’s futures slide rather than the tight physical market behind it. A decisive break above $6.55, or a clear ruling from the White House on the proposed 15% tariff, is what would force a re-rating; until then, $6.45 is the nearest scored floor.
