Rapid progress in quantum computing has intensified debate over the long-term security of digital assets, as quantum machines can tackle specific problems at dramatically faster rates. Accordingly, one of the most important questions raised by the advancements in the sector is: Will quantum computers break Bitcoin ($BTC)?
In theory, a sufficiently advanced quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm, which solves the prime factorization problem in polynomial time, could undermine elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) by deriving private keys from public keys within hours.
Last year, experts estimated that such a scenario could become reality within the next decade. Earlier this year, Jefferies eliminated its Bitcoin position due to quantum computing threats in early 2026, showing just how weighty the discussion had become.
To assess the situation from another angle, Finbold turned to OpenAI’s latest artificial intelligence (AI) model, ChatGPT-5.5, asking when Bitcoin quantum computing danger could become critical.
Can quantum computers break Bitcoin?
In answer to the prompt, ChatGPT argued that, based on the current state of quantum superposition technology, the probability of Bitcoin being broken by quantum computers is less than 1%, or virtually nonexistent, this decade,
According to the analysis, the probability increases gradually over a two-decade period, with a 5-10% chance of it happening by 2035 and 50-70% by 2045. After that, the probability will become ‘high’ unless Bitcoin upgrades.
Elaborating on the figures, the algorithm noted that quantum hardware scaling is proving difficult. Companies have made impressive progress, but moving from a few hundred or a few thousand noisy qubits to the millions of error-corrected physical qubits needed for cryptanalysis is an enormous engineering leap.
While recent Glassnode data showed that about 6.04 million $BTC, or 30.2% of the total supply, is already at risk if sufficiently powerful quantum computers emerge, ChatGPT noted that a machine that can break Bitcoin doesn’t just need many qubits. Rather, it needs stable logical qubits, and current systems are still years away from demonstrating that kind of fault tolerance at scale.
What’s more, the chatbot stressed that if credible evidence emerges, blockchain developers would work on migrating to post-quantum signatures. Such a transition could take years, but it is technically feasible.
The final verdict
Asked to pick a more specific date, ChatGPT chose 2042 as the point when the first quantum computer capable of threatening Bitcoin’s current signature scheme becomes plausible.
This makes the model a bit more optimistic than, for example, Google quantum researcher Craig Gidney, who argued for a potential threat window between 2030 and 2035, depending on advancements in error correction.
Instead, its analysis is closer to that given by Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, who stated in April that quantum computers likely won’t be a serious threat for at least two more decades.
Featured image via Shutterstock
