On Jan. 12, 2025, bitcoin’s price has been drifting within the $95,000 range, while market participants on prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are placing their bets on its future trajectory. Currently, a Polymarket wager suggests a 12% likelihood that bitcoin could climb to $120,000 by the close of the month.
Kalshi and Polymarket Forecast Bitcoin’s 2025 Price: Short- and Long-Term Bets
Looking ahead to 2025, expectations are high. According to the Chinese Zodiac, this is the Year of the Wood Snake, a time symbolizing growth and strategic foresight. One strategy drawing significant attention is whether President-elect Donald Trump will establish a national strategic bitcoin reserve for the United States. In parallel, some experts and analysts predict that Trump’s inauguration could trigger a bullish movement for BTC, propelling its value to new heights.
On Kalshi, a long-term bet is in play regarding the potential peak of bitcoin’s value before 2026. Currently, there’s a 59% probability that its price will reach $125,000 or higher. Thirty-five percent of bettors anticipate the price to exceed $150,000, while 29% predict it will surpass $160,000. As of now, this particular Kalshi wager is valued at $133,000. Meanwhile, a more immediate wager on Polymarket, titled “What price will Bitcoin hit in January?” has seen roughly $6.2 million in activity.
Source: Polymarket screenshot on Jan. 12, 2025, at 2 p.m. Eastern Time.
At present, the leading option is $90,000, with a 61% probability, followed by $105,000 at 41%. Bettors give $110,000 a 26% chance, while $80,000 is predicted with a 16% likelihood. The odds for $120,000 stand at 12%, and the chances for $130,000 are at 4%. The extravagant $200,000 has a slim 1% chance, with $150,000 holding odds of around 2%, and $140,000 slightly higher by a single percentage point.
Another Polymarket wager, titled “What price will Bitcoin hit by March 31?” has accumulated about $1 million in volume, with $90,000 leading the predictions at 76%. There’s a 64% chance the price will reach $110,000 by that time, and 47% predict a range near $80,000. Around 43% of bettors are backing $120,000, while 28% expect $130,000 by the end of March. There’s a 13% likelihood of $150,000, and 7% of bettors see $200,000 as a possible outcome.
Source: Polymarket screenshot on Jan. 12, 2025, at 2 p.m. Eastern Time.
As 2025 progresses, the fervent activity in prediction markets reflects the growing anticipation surrounding bitcoin’s future. While the price remains fluid, investors are betting on pivotal factors that could significantly shape its trajectory. The outcome of these wagers will offer a glimpse into the confidence and expectations surrounding the cryptocurrency’s potential as the year unfolds.
