Bitcoin has been gaining momentum, but experienced trader Peter Brandt remains skeptical about its prospects.
His recent analysis suggested that Bitcoin might not surpass $200,000 before the end of this decade. He highlighted technical barriers that could prevent Bitcoin from reaching this high valuation, but stressed that the analysis was just a thought, not a trade, confirming his uncertainty.
At the time of Brandt’s report, Bitcoin trades for $96,789, observing a modest 0.17% gain on the day but a 2.85% decline over the past week.
Despite the current recovery effort, Brandt argues that Bitcoin must sustain a strong upward push to overcome crucial resistance levels. Notably, without this momentum, projections of Bitcoin exceeding $200K might be overly optimistic.
Bitcoin in a Critical Condition
The market veteran’s chart spotlighted Bitcoin’s price behavior dating back to 2012. Data from the chart shows that since then, Bitcoin has followed a red long-term ascending channel, featuring two key trendlines that act as resistance and support.
Additionally, the asset has experienced multiple parabolic surges, which have always ended in sharp corrections once the momentum fades and before the next cycle begins.
Bitcoin 1W Chart | Peter Brandt
Currently, Bitcoin seems to be forming another parabolic rise similar to past cycles. However, the chart suggests caution as Bitcoin approaches the upper channel resistance, which historically precedes downturns.
Bitcoin is currently facing resistance near a key level. The 8-week moving average stands at $97,633, a threshold Bitcoin has struggled to clear. If it continues to trade below this level, bearish pressure could mount.
In addition, the Average True Range (ATR) is recorded at 8,988, signifying elevated volatility. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is 40.75, confirming that Bitcoin is in a strong trend, although it does not specify the direction of the move.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 20-period volume sum stands at 245,663, a figure that appears lower compared to previous breakout phases. For context, a significant surge in trading volume would be necessary to sustain a long-term uptrend.
Why Brandt Believes Bitcoin May Struggle to Hit $200K
Brandt believes that unless Bitcoin breaks through the upper boundary of its parabolic trajectory, it will likely remain below $200K by 2030.
He suggests that Bitcoin needs to achieve significant acceleration beyond resistance levels to sustain its rise. Without this, historical trends indicate the likelihood of extended consolidation or even downward movements.
Bitcoin is currently close to a critical resistance level between $100K and $120K. If it cannot breach this range, a reversal could push prices lower.
Meanwhile, on the downside, a potent support zone exists between $60K and $70K, which could act as a buffer if a correction occurs. In a more extreme scenario, Bitcoin could revisit the lower boundary of its long-term channel, ranging from $40K to $50K.
