In brief
- The 7D-SMA of US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows dropped to -$88M/day, the largest outflow since mid-February, Glassnode said.
- The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.52%, and April CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest in three years—pushing back expectations of a Fed rate cut.
- Analysts say $77,000 is the key support level; a break below, with open interest still elevated, could trigger a deleveraging phase.
Bitcoin is struggling to hold above $80,000 as institutional investors exit ETFs amid rising Treasury yields, even as the CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday
The leading crypto is up 0.8% over the past 24 hours and is trading at around $80,350, according to CoinGecko data, after multiple failed attempts to overcome the $82,000 hurdle—a resistance zone that encompasses the ETF cost basis, 200-day moving average, and the now-filled CME gap.
The 7D-SMA of U.S. Spot ETF netflow dropped to -$88M/day, the largest outflow since mid-February, Glassnode said in a Telegram post Thursday. “This wave is selling into strength,” Glassnode analysts wrote, adding that, “Institutional participants were using the recovery over the recent days as an exit, not responding to fear.”
So, what gives?
The institutional exit comes as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.52% on Friday, its highest in roughly 10 months. The U.S. CPI for April rose 3.8% year-over-year—the highest in three years—pushing back market expectations of a Fed rate cut, analysts said.
Analysts link both developments to the ongoing war in the Middle East, which has kept energy prices elevated and fed into inflation readings. BofA Global Research has revised its Fed rate cut expectations and believes the Fed will hold the 3.50% to 3.75% rates for the rest of this year. However, BoFA research analysts expect two quarter-point cuts in July and September 2027, respectively, according to Reuters. Goldman Sachs, however, expects cuts in December 2026 and March 2027.
Why institutions are selling, not panicking
The outflows represent periodic profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing rather than a panic exit, according to Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group. “Funding rates remain generally moderate, and the long/short ratio has not reached extremes,” Sun told Decrypt.
According to Sun, the options market points to a clear resistance zone between $82,000 and $84,000, with downside support at $77,000. “If Bitcoin holds this level, ETF outflows will likely result in short-term volatility rather than a trend reversal,” he said. “However, if Bitcoin breaks below $77,000 while perpetual swap open interest remains high, the market could enter a deleveraging phase, potentially deepening the decline.”
Alex Tsepaev, Chief Strategy Officer at B2PRIME Group, agreed that the quality of demand has weakened. “When U.S. Treasury yields are above 4.5% and the market prices out future Fed cuts, some allocations naturally flow toward cash and bonds,” he told Decrypt. His base case is zero rate cuts this year—one late cut in November or December is possible if inflation cools and labor markets weaken, but not more than one, he said.
Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, back up that assertion, placing just a 4% chance on the Fed cutting rates by more than 25 bps before July.
ETF selling alone would not erase recent gains but could exacerbate a correction, Tsepaev said. “ETF outflows may not reverse the whole picture, but they can push Bitcoin back toward the $76,000 to $77,000 area,” he said.
For now, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $77,000 will determine whether the outflows remain a short-term headwind or something more damaging, Sun and Tsepaev said.
Myriad users assign an 88% chance that Bitcoin’s next move is a rally to $84,000—up from 45% on April 1—even as analysts caution that the $82,000 to $84,000 range represents a clear resistance zone. That’s borne out by short-term markets, with a 73% chance of Bitcoin trading above $80,000 today, dropping to a 4% chance of it trading above $82,000.
