Bitcoin Pizza Day rally pushes BTC toward $112,000 — how high is Bitcoin going to go?

With Bitcoin Pizza Day pushing BTC past $111,000, are we just getting started? How high is Bitcoin going to go from here in price discovery mode?

Why is Bitcoin going up?

Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high of $111,861 in early trading on May 22. The date also marks Bitcoin Pizza Day, which commemorates the first real-world purchase made with Bitcoin in 2010, when 10,000 BTC were spent on two pizzas. At today’s price, that amount would be worth over $1.1 billion.

After the intraday peak, BTC pulled back minutely to around $111,500 at the time of writing, posting nearly 8% gains over the past seven days.

The rise came even as U.S. stock markets declined the previous day, reflecting a growing divergence between Bitcoin and traditional equities and breaking the typical correlation seen with indices like the Nasdaq during periods of economic uncertainty.

Multiple developments may be fueling the shift.

On May 20, the U.S. Senate advanced a bill that lays out a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Although the bill focuses specifically on dollar-pegged digital assets, it marks the first formal move toward broader crypto legislation in the U.S., potentially opening the door to more regulatory clarity across the space.

Meanwhile, institutional sentiment has also shifted. On May 19, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon announced during the bank’s annual investor meeting that clients would now be able to purchase Bitcoin through the firm’s platforms.

While JPMorgan won’t be directly holding the asset, offering access through its infrastructure marks a key change for one of the world’s largest banks.

JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon reiterated his personal stance, saying, “I’m not a fan of Bitcoin,” but the move clearly responds to rising client interest.

Amid this, concerns around the U.S. fiscal outlook may also be playing a role in Bitcoin’s recent rise.

Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating last week, citing long-term debt challenges and policy uncertainty. In response, some investors appear to be turning to Bitcoin as a potential hedge against dollar weakness and broader fiscal instability.

Bitcoin pizza day brings tonnes of inflows

Over the last three trading sessions through May 21, spot Bitcoin ETFs have collectively brought in over $1.5 billion in inflows, with nearly $1 billion arriving in just the past two days.

BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC have led the activity, with IBIT alone pulling in more than $700 million during this period. Single-day inflows included $305.9 million on May 19 and $287.5 million on May 20.

Buying activity at these levels indicates that institutions are still entering the market, doing so at relatively high prices, which points to longer-term conviction rather than short-term positioning.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s open interest across derivatives markets has reached a new high, totaling over 722,000 BTC, about $80.5 billion in notional value as of May 22.

CME continues to be the largest venue for BTC-denominated open interest, holding 164,060 BTC worth $18.14 billion. With a market share of 22.7%, CME’s dominance reflects the scale of institutional involvement in the current rally.

Binance and OKX follow with 122,780 BTC and 43,450 BTC in open interest, respectively.

Total open interest rose 17.76% over the past 24 hours. Bitget posted the sharpest percentage increase at over 8%, while Binance saw a 9.5% gain, pointing to rising leverage across both institutional and retail trading segments.

Higher open interest paired with rising prices generally signals new capital entering long positions. While that can support further upside, it also adds the risk of sharper short-term swings if overleveraged trades start to unwind.

In the options market, activity appears to be shifting toward calls, with traders using contracts to express upward price expectations.

Call options give buyers the right to purchase Bitcoin at a set price later, signaling a bullish outlook.

At the same time, an increase in protective puts could point to hedging behavior, even in the face of strong spot demand.

Taken together, the ETF inflows and derivatives positioning suggest confidence among institutional and sophisticated investors.

However, the elevated open interest and influx of leverage also mean that the next leg in price could be more reactive to sudden shifts in sentiment or funding conditions.

Bitcoin technical analysis

Bitcoin’s daily chart reflects a clean breakout structure. Following a prolonged consolidation between January and mid-April, where prices held within a narrow band between $95,000 and $105,000, momentum began building in late April with a steady upward move.

A more defined breakout emerged once BTC pushed past the $105,000 resistance, a level that had capped multiple rally attempts since the start of the year.

Recent price action has established a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the bullish trend. The current leg of the rally began from the April swing low near $73,000.

From that level, Bitcoin has gained over 50% in less than two months, climbing with minimal pullbacks and entering a zone of limited historical reference, where price discovery becomes more speculative.

The area between $105,000 and $107,000 now serves as the first major support zone. This range acted as resistance during the earlier consolidation and has likely flipped into support following the breakout.

A potential retracement into this zone would offer traders a key area to gauge market strength and the likelihood of trend continuation.

However, psychological round numbers like $115,000 and $120,000 may act as soft barriers, given how commonly such levels influence behavior in crypto markets.

Sustaining a daily close above $112,000 with strong volume could open the way toward the $118,000 to $120,000 zone, where sellers might begin to emerge and trigger partial profit-taking.

From a trend perspective, momentum indicators are likely approaching overbought conditions. While that doesn’t imply an immediate reversal, it does highlight the increasingly stretched nature of the move.

A deeper pullback would bring the $98,000 to $100,000 region into focus. This zone holds structural importance and could serve as secondary support before any larger move lower.

Losing that level might lead to a broader retest of the $92,000 to $95,000 range, where Bitcoin spent considerable time consolidating earlier in the year.

For now, the technical structure remains strong, supported by confirmed breakout levels and active participation across both spot and derivatives markets.

How high is Bitcoin going to go?

Bitcoin’s ongoing rally has now entered a phase of price discovery. With the previous all-time high surpassed, analysts have begun turning to Fibonacci-based projections and key zones to assess where the market could move next.

Ali Martinez points to levels such as $116,000, $126,000, $136,000, and $148,000, referencing commonly used expansion points in trend analysis where reactions may emerge as the rally progresses.

A broader framework comes from Titan of Crypto, who highlights a fib extension structure targeting $135,000 as a meaningful level for 2025.

His chart reflects a sequence of clean breakouts and successful retests, suggesting the current rally is grounded in prior consolidation phases rather than showing signs of exhaustion.

Another projection has been offered by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, which places the upper bound of this cycle in the yellow band of the Rainbow Price Chart, estimating a potential target zone between $170,000 and $230,000.

Beyond technicals, Bitcoin’s price movement is also being shaped by macroeconomic factors.

The U.S. dollar has continued to weaken, most recently falling to a two-week low after a lackluster response to the Treasury’s 20-year bond auction.

This move follows Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating and reflects deepening concerns around long-term debt sustainability.

Adding to the pressure, the Congressional Budget Office has projected that President Trump’s latest tax and spending proposal could increase the national debt by nearly $3.8 trillion over the next decade.

Bond markets are beginning to reflect this unease, with recent auctions drawing tepid demand and volatility rising across rates.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin appears to be benefiting from a shift in capital preference away from dollar-denominated assets. The rally, in part, mirrors changing investor behavior amid growing concerns about fiat stability and long-term fiscal direction.

While Bitcoin continues to climb, most altcoins remain subdued. Major tokens are still trailing in both price movement and trading volume, which is typical during the early phase of a Bitcoin-led rally.

During such periods, capital tends to concentrate in Bitcoin, especially when the move is viewed through an institutional or macro lens. Only after BTC finds stability and volatility eases does the market tend to rotate into smaller assets.

The next chapter for altcoins will depend on two key factors. Sustained stability in Bitcoin’s current range could help rebuild investor confidence and support risk-taking beyond BTC.

Equally important are sentiment and liquidity, both of which remain relatively cautious in the altcoin space. Many tokens are still trading below major resistance zones and have not reclaimed previous highs.

Until broader capital rotation is confirmed, altcoin momentum remains speculative and lacks clear trend support.

As always, approach the market with care, manage exposure wisely, and avoid risking more than you can afford to lose.