Bitcoin ($BTC) has formed a rare bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence on its weekly chart, a technical signal that previously preceded a rally of more than 700%.
The weekly bullish RSI divergence has emerged during $BTC’s consolidation following its correction from 2025 highs above $120,000, signaling that selling pressure may be easing and echoing conditions seen near the 2022 bear-market bottom.
The weekly chart shared by analyst Ali Martinez in an X post on July 18 shows Bitcoin printing a lower low in price while the RSI forms a higher low.
This creates a bullish divergence, a pattern that often signals fading bearish momentum and the potential for a trend reversal.
The analysis highlighted a striking resemblance to Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom. During that period, $BTC established a major low near $16,000 before launching a rally that eventually exceeded 700%.
The current structure shows a similar divergence developing near the $58,000 to $60,000 region, while RSI has started trending upward from oversold territory.
In addition, the indicator has rebounded from levels near 30, suggesting momentum is improving even though price action remains relatively subdued. According to analysis, this is only the second time such a divergence has appeared on Bitcoin’s weekly chart since the 2022 cycle low.
However, technical analysts caution that the divergence alone does not guarantee a breakout. Bitcoin still needs to reclaim key resistance levels before a larger bullish trend can be confirmed.
As things stand, $65,000 is an important level, with a sustained move above that area strengthening the bullish case.
Bitcoin fundamentals
The bullish setup comes amid a challenging macro backdrop, with Bitcoin trading in a broad range as investors weigh inflation data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and geopolitical risks. Even so, $BTC has remained resilient, rebounding toward $65,000 on softer U.S. inflation data and renewed spot ETF inflows.
Institutional demand also remains a key theme. Large holders accumulated more than 270,000 $BTC worth roughly $16.7 billion over two weeks despite significant ETF outflows, a divergence that has historically appeared near major market bottoms.
While the current pattern resembles the setup that preceded Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2022 lows, today’s market is far larger and more institutionally driven.
As a result, replicating a 700% rally would likely require substantially greater capital inflows than in previous cycles.
Bitcoin price analysis
By press time, the cryptocurrency was trading at $64,260, up about 0.3% over the past 24 hours and 0.45% on the week.
Bitcoin’s technical outlook remains slightly bullish in the short term. At current levels, the cryptocurrency is trading above its 50-day SMA of $63,596, signaling positive near-term momentum. However, it remains below the 200-day SMA of $73,203, suggesting the broader trend has yet to turn decisively bullish.
Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stands at 55.09, a neutral reading that points to modest buying momentum without indicating overbought conditions.
