Bitcoin demand has staged one of its strongest recoveries of 2026 amid fresh activity in the futures market, according to CryptoQuant author IT Tech.
However, spot demand remains weak, suggesting long-term investors are still cautious despite Bitcoin’s recent rebound.
The recovery comes as Bitcoin climbs from last week’s bear-market low of $57,700 to around $64,000. Historical July seasonality also points to the potential for further gains.
Futures Lead the Recovery
According to IT Tech, Bitcoin’s 30-day cumulative demand has improved by nearly 425,000 $BTC over the past week, recovering from nearly -500,000 $BTC to around -75,000 $BTC.
The rebound has been driven mainly by derivatives markets. Futures demand rose from roughly -295,000 $BTC to slightly above zero, signaling new speculative interest among leveraged traders.
Spot demand, however, remains weak at about -78,000 $BTC. This suggests long-term buyers have yet to return despite Bitcoin’s price recovery.
While the gap between futures and spot demand shows market conditions are improving, the recovery is still incomplete.
“Historically, the strongest and most sustainable rallies begin when both futures and spot demand move higher together,” IT Tech said, adding that spot demand remains “the missing piece.”
Bitcoin Reclaims $60K as July Outlook Improves
In a July 8 report, CryptoQuant said Bitcoin has climbed about 11% from last week’s low of $57,700 to trade near $64,000. The move allowed the cryptocurrency to reclaim $60,000 as a key support level.
The report also highlighted Bitcoin’s strong historical performance in July. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has ended the month higher in most years, including during bear markets.
For example, Bitcoin gained about 20% in July 2018 and 17% in July 2022 despite broader market weakness.
With Bitcoin entering July after setting a fresh cycle low, CryptoQuant said historical seasonality favors additional near-term upside.
Demand and U.S. Buying Sentiment Improve
CryptoQuant said total Bitcoin demand has recovered significantly after shrinking by nearly 650,000 $BTC in early June, the steepest contraction since 2022.
At the same time, spot market selling pressure has eased to its lowest level since mid-May.
The report also showed improving sentiment among U.S. investors. The Coinbase Premium Index recovered from deeply negative levels to -0.062 as Bitcoin rebounded from $57,000, pointing to stronger buying interest from U.S.-based investors.
Bull Market Signal Still Missing
Despite the improving data, CryptoQuant said broader market conditions remain bearish. Traders’ unrealized profit-and-loss margin briefly fell below -20%, a level that typically signals short-term undervaluation. However, the firm’s Bull Score Index remains at 20.
According to CryptoQuant, the index usually needs to rise above 60 to confirm the start of a sustainable bull market.
The firm concluded that demand, price action, and seasonal trends are becoming more supportive. However, stronger spot buying will likely be needed before Bitcoin can establish a lasting bullish trend.
