Bitcoin ($BTC) fell below $80,000 at Friday’s Wall Street open as analysis tied risk-asset weakness to US bond markets.
Key points:
- Bitcoin eyes its lowest levels of May as concerns over US bond yields spark a risk-asset rout.
- US 10-year treasury yields rise above levels that sparked a US tariff pause on China last year.
- Traders wait for new local lows for $BTC/USD as support stability is eroded.
Bitcoin suffers as risk-asset “euphoria” turns sour
Data from TradingView tracked 3% daily $BTC price losses, with downside intensifying as the US session began. $BTC/USD approached its lowest levels in May so far.
$BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Stocks also gave back gains after hitting new all-time highs earlier in the week.
S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter saw risk-asset “euphoria” giving way to concerns about “unsustainable” US bond yields.
“The bond market crisis is intensifying. The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025,” it wrote in a post on X.
“After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today. As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable.”
US 10-year treasury note yield one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Kobeissi noted that yields were now above levels seen in April 2025, when US President Donald Trump halted the implementation of trade tariffs on China. That move, it said, came due to “a collapsing bond market.”
“Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed’s next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out,” the post added.
“We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs. Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.”
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed a 0.25% interest-rate hike as the most likely outcome by March 2027.
$BTC price lows back on the radar
As Cointelegraph reported, traders were already unsure about Bitcoin’s ability to climb beyond $82,000 local highs.
Related: Bitcoin price history suggests 77% odds of new all-time high within a year
A support retest was already on the cards, and targets on the day extended toward the mid-$70,000 zone.
“Honestly, not a good sign that $BTC fully retraced the move from yesterday,” trader Pat told X followers.
$BTC/USD comparison. Source: Pat/X
Rangebound continuation was an increasingly popular option, with analyst Eric Coleman suggesting that low-time frame price action was predictable.
“$BTC pumped from the marked horizontal support just as expected and again it got rejected below the trendline and the horizontal resistance,” he wrote alongside an explanatory chart.
“Further movement in between the horizontal support and resistance is expected until a solid breakout or breakdown occurs.”
$BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Eric Coleman/X
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