Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, is currently trading around $62,700, having recovered from its lows last week after falling below $58,000, as ETF inflows began to improve market sentiment.
While the direction of future price movement is a subject of speculation, analysis firm CryptoQuant has released a new analysis on what is needed for an upward trend.
Bitcoin Needs $1 Trillion to Rise!
According to CryptoQuant analysts, $BTC needs more than $1 trillion in new capital for its next surge.
According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, Bitcoin’s capital efficiency has decreased, and it needs over $1 trillion in new funding to support its next surge.
Analysts noted that $BTC’s capital efficiency has dropped sharply in past bull cycles, requiring significantly more capital for rallies.
Citing historical data, analysts have shown that net inflows of $2.8 billion in 2011 led to a 55,000% price increase, while inflows of $69 billion in 2015 resulted in a 10,000% increase. In the current cycle, which began in 2022, inflows of $697 billion yielded a 689% gain.
At this point, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju states that for Bitcoin to gain further, there needs to be large-scale institutional transactions beyond the current retail investor-focused ETF transactions.
However, the CEO stated that institutional funds were not yet ready for such a large-scale influx, citing net outflows from spot $BTC ETFs for months and Bitcoin’s downward trend at the end of the first half of the year as reasons.
What Does Bitcoin’s Recovery Mean?
Aside from CryptoQuant, Chinese crypto analyst Murphy also shared his latest analysis on $BTC. According to his post, the analyst stated that Bitcoin’s recovery is difficult to consider a trend reversal due to the decline in spot trading volume. He noted that the current rise is merely a recovery without the support of spot demand.
Finally, Chinese cryptocurrency journalist Wu Blockchain noted that Bitcoin miner stress has reached a historically rare level.
According to Wu, the Miner Cycle Stress Composite Index has fallen to new lows in 2026, entering the “Under Value” range. Similar declines have been seen previously in 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024, and around significant lows for Bitcoin.
The index previously reached the 0.00 level in 2015, when Bitcoin dropped from approximately $300 to $160 in a single week. At that point, the analyst noted that the index is likely to exhibit similar behavior in 2026, indicating that miner pressure has returned to historically rare levels.
*This is not investment advice.
