The buyers near $77K look different
The first clue is in how the rebound is being funded. Bitfinex’s trading desk told CoinDesk that Bitcoin was in a “market driven by spot buying”, while identifying roughly $77,100 as support.
Futures open interest had been rising gradually rather than surging, and the futures basis remained relatively restrained.
That matters because a rally built mainly on leveraged futures positions can unwind quickly when prices fall and liquidations begin.
Spot buyers purchasing Bitcoin outright provide a potentially more durable source of demand.
That distinction is especially important in a market still carrying memories of sharp liquidation-driven reversals during earlier bouts of macroeconomic stress this year.
Institutional demand has not disappeared, although the latest session was softer.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $57 million of net outflows on September 8, following $174.6 million of inflows on September 4 and $730.8 million on September 3.
CoinDesk also reported that Bitfinex estimated the average cost basis of active Bitcoin investors at about $76,350, close to where buyers recently stepped in.
Bitcoin is showing where buyers draw the line
Price action is making the $77,000-$78,000 region increasingly important with analysts identifying roughly $77,500 as an important support area and $79,500-$80,000 as the first zone bulls need to reclaim.
Pi42 co-founder Avinash Shekhar told Moneycontrol that the more important signal is how Bitcoin behaves after a pullback.
A market that can absorb pressure, hold support and recover “without excessive leverage,”he said, would provide a stronger foundation for another advance.
Wednesday’s move fits that argument as Bitcoin faced several macro reasons to weaken.
Oil prices were surging, inflation concerns were rising and investors were weighing whether the Federal Reserve could tighten policy again.
The $78K floor is still unproven
The bullish interpretation has a major weakness, as Bitcoin has not decisively established support.
Trader Rekt Capital identified roughly $78,300 as the crucial retest area. He warned that a weekly close below that level followed by a failed recovery could confirm another breakdown.
The comparison with May matters. Bitcoin previously reached about $82,800, fell back towards $78,300 and eventually broke lower.
There is also supply waiting overhead. Bitfinex analysts told The Block that more than 71% of Bitcoin supply is now in profit.
That creates a deeper pool of holders able to sell when $BTC approaches recent highs, particularly around the low-$80,000 region.
The result is a developing battle rather than a confirmed breakout.
