QCP, one of the leading analysis companies in cryptocurrency markets, has published its market report today. While unexpectedly strong employment data increased risk appetite, eyes turned to the critical non-farm employment data to be released on Friday.
While the upward movement in the US stock markets is drawing attention, the S&P 500 index is gradually advancing towards 6,000 points, a psychologically important level.
According to the analyst firm, stable nonfarm payrolls data will strengthen the Fed’s rhetoric about the resilience of the labor market and increase expectations that interest rates will remain steady.
According to QCP’s analysis, on the trade front, markets are focused on the upcoming talks between the US and China. This cautious wait is also reflected in the crypto market. While Bitcoin’s short-term volatility has declined, spot prices are trading sideways in the $105,000 band. One-month implied volatility has fallen below 40%.
Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow price range, while the low open interest and the normalization of the skew indicate that the market is indecisive about the direction. Since May, the volatility curve has flattened, especially in the medium and long term. This situation parallels the decline in the VIX index and causes some investors to take long volatility positions. In particular, the purchase of the September term $130,000 call option with 47 percent volatility reveals a partial increase expectation for the third quarter.
According to QCP, the third quarter could be more challenging. While the effects of customs duties are expected to be reflected in macroeconomic data, uncertainties about the fiscal package called the “Big Beautiful Bill (BBB)” and the debt ceiling could cause volatility.
*This is not investment advice.
