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Vitalik Buterin warns of 20% chance quantum computers may compromise cryptography before 2030.
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Metaculus predicts median timeline of 2040 for quantum computers breaking modern cryptographic defenses.
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Researchers explore post-quantum cryptography, zk-proofs, and STARKs to secure the blockchain future.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has raised fresh concerns about the future of cryptography in the age of quantum computing. Vitalik warns that quantum computers could break today’s cryptography by around 2040, with roughly a 20% chance that this could happen before 2030.
Why Quantum Matters for Crypto
Cryptography isn’t just about passwords or private emails, it secures the entire digital economy. From online banking to cryptocurrency wallets and smart contracts, all rely on algorithms designed to resist attacks from classical computers.
A powerful quantum machine could, however, crack these defenses far faster, putting everything from financial assets to personal data at risk.
Ian Miers Raises the Concern of Soundness
Ian Miers explained that the real issue isn’t just the possibility of a future attacker decrypting old data. Instead, the deeper concern is soundness, ensuring that cryptographic systems, including blockchains, remain trustworthy even against the power of quantum computing.
Lack of market certainly would prevent it if nothing else.
I’m not sure quantum changes that short term, or needs to: You have non-stark PQ schemes (e.g., ligero). And Groth16 etc are statistically zero-knowledge, so they should be post quantum private(not sound) IIRC.
— Ian Miers (@secparam) August 27, 2025
He pointed out that STARKs, a cryptographic proof system, may be pushed to evolve into more zero-knowledge (zk) structures. This shift could come as they compete with post-quantum sound and zk schemes, but he left an open question: Will those incentives be enough to ensure long-term safety?
Vitalik Buterin Brings Forecasts Into the Conversation
Responding to Miers, Vitalik Buterin highlighted predictions from forecasting platform Metaculus. According to its data, the median estimate for when quantum computers could break today’s cryptography is 2040, though there is about a 20% chance this happens before 2030.
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This reminder underscores that while the threat may not feel immediate, it’s close enough on the horizon to demand serious attention today.
Metaculus’s median date for when quantum computers will break modern cryptography is 2040:https://t.co/Li8ni8A9Ox
Seemingly about a 20% chance it will be before end of 2030.
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) August 27, 2025
Building a Post-Quantum Future
Despite the risks, the crypto community is not standing still. Researchers are already working on post-quantum cryptography, new algorithms designed to survive quantum attacks.
At the same time, zk-proofs and STARKs continue to evolve, showing promise for more resilient systems.
