Meanwhile, bitcoin’s price reversal proved catastrophic for traders betting long on the cryptocurrency. As shown by Coinglass data, long bitcoin bets liquidated reached $135 million over the last 24 hours, a massive increase from the approximately $5 million in long bets liquidated a day earlier. Shorts liquidated topped $5 million, bringing total liquidations on bitcoin to $140 million.
Across the broader cryptocurrency economy, long bets liquidated topped $412 million, while short bets wiped out surpassed $43 million.
Strong ETF Inflows vs. Muted Price Action
Bitcoin’s sideways price action Thursday came even as spot bitcoin ETFs drew more than $1 billion in inflows over the prior three days. That followed a stretch of sustained outflows, during which the cryptocurrency held barely above $80,000.
Commenting on the apparent disconnect between ETF flows and bitcoin price, Bitfinex analysts suggested these now “act as a critical ‘quality filter’ distinguishing genuine, spot-led breakouts from fragile, debt-fueled spikes.”
In a note on the flow-versus-price dynamic, Bitfinex analysts noted that Oct. 19’s $526.7 million in net ETF inflows marked a significant rise in spot demand, yet prices remained tightly range-bound between $81,724 and $83,470. The analysts emphasized that the consolidation structure sits below the average ETF cohort cost basis of $84,333, adding that consecutive sessions of institutional inflows remain necessary to break above the $84,000 resistance level.
Addressing who is absorbing demand, Bitfinex analysts said:
“Initial tests of the upper boundary may, however, encounter selling pressure as short-term traders take profits… Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) stands near 1.003, signaling modest profit realization among recent buyers. Supply in profit sits at 70%, relative to the long-term baseline of 75%.”
The analysts also noted that a second session of similar inflow size is required to confirm demand, pointing to potential targets of $84,100 to $86,100—where 1.08 million BTC are held at a loss—and eventually $87,197. “The hand-off from dip buyers to new buyers is what raises the floor without lifting the ceiling,” they said.
Macro Pressures and Tech Stocks Shadow Digital Assets
Macroeconomic trends could also override institutional flows, Bitfinex analysts warned, highlighting a strong correlation between digital assets and equity market trends, particularly within tech and AI sectors. With bitcoin’s 20-day Nasdaq-100 correlation standing at 0.78, guidance on AI capital spending could dictate whether the tech sell-off resumes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 28 policy update.
Finally, the analysts cautioned that ETF flows are currently preventing leveraged breakouts. Bitfinex identified a daily close above $84,400 alongside a second ETF inflow exceeding $300 million, with funding rates falling toward 3% and flat open interest, as the ideal setup for a genuine breakout.
Conversely, a close above that level with funding near 9% would represent a leveraged move prone to being sold off, repeating the unwind patterns observed Oct. 8 and Oct. 15.
