The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), released on November 13, 2026, came in below forecasts. This slight respite from inflation somewhat eases fears of a sharp rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). In turn, Bitcoin (BTC) gets a little breathing room and tries to move back toward $70,000, while gold seeks to regain $4,000 an ounce.
PPI slows in the United States
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published October’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data this Friday, November 13. This indicator, which measures inflation in producers’ selling prices, came in at +0.3% for the month, versus +0.4% expected by the consensus.
Year over year, the Producer Price Index rose 6.5%, also slightly below the 6.6% expected. The Core PPI sub-index, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, came in exactly in line with forecasts, rising +0.3% for the month and +5% year over year.
This slowdown should be viewed against the previous month’s figures. In September, PPI inflation had surged 1.3% in a month, its largest monthly increase since March 2022, while Core PPI had risen 0.7%. With an increase of +0.3% in October, the pace of growth in producers’ selling prices therefore slowed significantly, and the figure was slightly below consensus. This contrast with the September shock partly explains the markets’ favorable reaction.
The Fed’s December interest rate decision is the main focus
The main significance of this PPI data lies in expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Before the Producer Price Index was released, CME Group’s FedWatch tool put the probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s December 8-9 meeting at 100%. About 84% of the probabilities pointed to a 25-basis-point hike, versus around 16% for a larger 50-basis-point increase.
After the day’s producer price data was released, these probabilities changed little, to around 86% versus 14%. The main scenario now leans somewhat more clearly toward a 25-basis-point hike, which would put rates in a range of 4% to 4.25%, compared with 3.75% to 4% currently.
As a reminder, earlier in the week, higher-than-expected CPI inflation figures, which measure consumer prices, had weighed on cryptocurrency markets by reviving the prospect of a more pronounced Fed tightening.
Bitcoin moves back toward $70,000, while gold also tries to rebound
The slight respite on the PPI front prompted a moderate reaction in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly approached $70,000 after the release, before edging down slightly at the time of writing.
The move was not confined to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Gold, another indicator of inflation and monetary policy expectations, briefly traded above $3,900 an ounce, or about 31.1 g of pure gold, after the PPI release. It gained nearly 1% in 24 hours. However, the yellow metal slipped back just below that level at the time of writing and remains far from the $4,100 threshold, which it had fallen below earlier in the week.
The PPI appears to have offered only brief relief to markets under pressure, which are now mainly awaiting the Fed’s decision following its next meeting, scheduled for December 9, 2026.
