A trader with a track record for accurate Bitcoin (BTC) calls says that the crypto king’s bull market trend line is breaking, opening the door for a correction.
Pseudonymous analyst Dave the Wave tells his 146,000 followers on the social media platform X that BTC may soon make a move to the downside, possibly dropping to as low as the 0.38 Fibonacci level which is around the $50,000 mark.
“With the trendline breaking, a weighted outlook has to shift toward further consolidation of BTC price over the shorter term. Looking either for a range to form [0.23 fib] or support at the buy zone [0.38 fib]. This may well set up for a better 4th quarter.”
Source: Dave the Wave/X
The trader says he’s watching the monthly chart for more confirmation of a trend reversal.
“Still wanting to see some follow-through on the monthly to confirm a change of trend… these things take time.”
Source: Dave the Wave/X
Bitcoin’s current monthly candle has gone slightly lower since Dave the Wave posted his chart, now trading below the diagonal support level.
The analyst recently predicted a market top for Bitcoin in December 2025 by using his version of the logarithmic growth channel (LGC) curve, which aims to predict Bitcoin’s longer-term cycle lows and highs while filtering out shorter-term volatility.
“If you subscribe to the BTC four-year cycle theory, then it may not help you much with the top (again). However, if you subscribe to the LGC theory, it may once again be useful.”
Source: Dave the Wave/X
Looking at his chart, the analyst suggests Bitcoin could hit the top of the LGC model and soar above $300,000 at the end of 2025.
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,249, down over 3% on the day.
Generated Image: Midjourney
