A recent analysis by the Head of Product at CF Benchmarks (Kraken), Thomas Erdösi, reveals that the current Bitcoin (BTC) price rally might still have room for growth.
The thing might appear anomalous, given that the current price levels are already the highest in the entire history of BTC, but there is a clear signal that the growth potential of this bull rally might not yet be exhausted.
The CF Bitcoin Volatility Index
Erdösi highlights how the volatility index CF Bitcoin (BVX) is indicating that, despite Bitcoin retesting all-time highs, the speculative euphoria typical of major market peaks is not observed.
BVX has indeed risen from 43 to 48 in the last five days, but remains well below the levels above 60 recorded between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025.
So while the rally triggered by the electoral victory of Trump had caused the CF Bitcoin volatility index to skyrocket to very high levels, even with a price that had never exceeded $110,000, now that it has exceeded them, it is still remaining well below those peaks.
In other words, at the end of 2024 traders were aggressively betting on exceptional increases through the options market, while the current more moderate volatility profile suggests precisely that the rally might still have room for growth, with option prices reflecting a balanced market, devoid of extreme expectations both bull and bear.
Kraken: the analysis of BTC price
Kraken is one of the main crypto exchanges in the United States.
It is also one of the most historic ever, given that it has existed since 2013, which is the year of the first great speculative bubble on the price of Bitcoin.
The project was founded as early as 2011 by Jesse Powell, Thanh Luu, and Michael Gronager, and the exchange was launched two years later. At the time, it supported only two cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin and Litecoin.
The turning point came the following year, that is, in 2014 when Mt. Gox closed, which at the time was the only major crypto exchange in the world. In fact, in March 2014, Kraken received an investment of 5 million dollars from Hummingbird Ventures and Bitcoin Opportunity Fund.
A month later, it became one of the first bitcoin exchanges to be listed on the Bloomberg Terminal.
CF Benchmarks is a company owned by Kraken.
It deals in particular with indices on digital assets and is a company authorized and regulated by the British FCA. However, it also deals with analysis, often published on their official X profile.
The Erdösi hypothesis on the price of BTC
Thomas Erdösi did not limit himself to revealing that the current level of their volatility index on Bitcoin is strangely low at this moment.
He also added:
“Strengthening this view is also the relative calm in the Bitcoin futures markets, where the basis remains contained, indicating that traders are not using high levels of leverage to exploit the difference between spot and futures prices. The absence of aggressive trading on the basis confirms that speculative positions are under control. Overall, these indicators outline a measured and orderly market, rather than euphoric, potentially leaving room for a further continuation of the bull rally”.
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The Bitcoin market
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In this context, the statement stands out particularly that the Bitcoin market is currently measured and orderly, because it is usually almost never like this in bull periods of rally.
In other words, the fact that the price of BTC has returned to its highs in the absence of aggressive trading sounds quite strange, given the habits of the bull and bear crypto markets.
This is an anomaly as curious as it is interesting, because it evidently suggests that aggressive trading, made of euphoria and not moderation, may still have to arrive.
In fact, during the previous major bullrun following the US presidential elections, in 2013, 2017, and 2021, aggressive and euphoric trading arrived mainly at the end of the year, even though in 2021 it had already arrived for the first time at the beginning of the year.
This time it happened at the end of 2024, triggered by the outcome of the USA presidential elections, but it could also return at the end of the year as it has already happened in all three past occasions.
It is possible that by now Bitcoin is so integrated into traditional financial markets that it has unexpectedly become measured and orderly precisely thanks to the substantial capital moved by traditional investors, otherwise it is particularly difficult to explain the picture highlighted by Erdösi.
