Nic Puckrin highlighted that Bitcoin is currently struggling, potentially due to the massive options expiry scheduled for tomorrow, with volatility expected.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a tight range between $106,000 and $110,000 from May 24 to May 27, showing no clear directional breakout. By May 29, BTC modestly rebounded to around $108,000-$109,000, still below the week’s peak, while the price stood at $107,782.
Despite a moderate 3% decline over the week, mid- and long-term trends remain bullish. However, the looming options expiry on May 30 has injected uncertainty into the market, signaling potential volatility in the near term.
Options Expiry and Open Interest Analysis
Notably, Nic Puckrin, CEO and co-founder of Coin Bureau, recently highlighted how Bitcoin is currently struggling, potentially due to the massive options expiry scheduled for tomorrow. He also noted the significant open interest ahead of the expiry.
According to his analysis, a total of 92,932 contracts remain open, with 49,593 calls and 43,339 puts. This results in a put/call ratio of 0.87, reflecting slightly more calls than puts, which can suggest bullish sentiment. The combined notional value of these contracts reaches an enormous $10 billion, underlining the financial magnitude of this expiry.
The open interest clusters notably between the $95,000 and $110,000 strike prices. These strikes hold “high delta” options that are near or at the money, making them more reactive to price movements.
The chart also points to a max pain price around $100,000, where options holders are likely to experience the greatest losses if the price settles there. Market makers may push BTC towards this level to minimize payouts.
Meanwhile, calls concentrate near $110,000 and puts near $95,000, indicating a tug-of-war in expectations around the $100,000 mark. Puckrin indicated that heightened volatility could unfold in the coming hours.
Derivatives Market and Trader Positioning
Meanwhile, derivatives data reveals rising trading activity amid these developments. Bitcoin’s overall trading volume increased by 10.82%, hitting $109.3 billion. Total open interest slightly declined by 1.14% to $77.68 billion, but options open interest specifically rose by 2.12% to $49.7 billion, consistent with the growing positioning in the options market.
Bitcoin Derivatives Data Analysis
Trader behavior shows a nearly balanced long-to-short ratio of 0.9716 across exchanges, leaning mildly toward short positions. Despite this balance, liquidations tell a different story. In the last 24 hours, liquidations totaled nearly $97 million, with longs accounting for $80.75 million and shorts $16.12 million.
The BTC OI-weighted funding rate chart shows mostly positive funding rates since early May, with the green areas above zero indicating that longs are paying shorts. This typically means there are more leveraged long positions in the market.
Generally, positive funding rates suggest bullish sentiment because traders are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions. However, very high or sustained positive funding rates can sometimes signal an overheated market, which could lead to corrections due to liquidations.
