The last four times Michael Saylor announced a corporate bitcoin (BTC) purchase at Strategy, his stock price declined. In previous years, the market has generally reacted positively to his tweets.
Although the company’s average cost basis per bitcoin is $66,357 — still well below current prices — Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has lost money on each of the company’s last 13 purchases.
Depending on how one prefers to calculate the price of Strategy stock (MSTR) as of its November 11 announcement that coincided with a major price gap, it’s certainly true that it’s also lower than all 13 of its latest bitcoin purchases.
Saylor’s last four BTC acquisition tweets sent MSTR lower over the following days.
As bitcoin paused and then retraced the run-up to Donald Trump’s January inauguration, MSTR shareholders have benefited less and less from the company’s increasing BTC cost basis.
MSTR trades lower on Saylor’s last four purchases
Saylor’s last four BTC acquisition tweets — Jan 21, Jan 27, Feb 10, and Feb 24 — sent MSTR lower on those particular days and the day after.
To be fair, Saylor’s tweets are not the market’s only opportunity to learn about the company’s BTC purchases, so analyzing price action as of the day of his announcement is contentious. For example, he developed a custom of tweeting allusions to dots on SaylorTracker.com the day before announcing BTC purchases.
Read more: Michael Saylor’s Strategy makes up metrics to explain MSTR dilution
As if that didn’t complicate data analysis enough, Saylor also pre-announces bulk BTC purchases by way of multi-month convertible debt and at-the-money (colloquially, “ATM”) share sales.
Because the market is usually aware of Strategy’s intention to acquire BTC within a given period, news of actual purchases is not de novo information for investment analysis.
