Bitcoin trades at $63,985 on July 25, pulling back after rejecting a 4-hour order block near $67,000 as analyst Benjamin Cowen warns the July rally has two weeks at most before seasonal weakness historically takes over. Three consecutive weeks of ETF inflows say the institutional floor is holding, but the 2018 analog says what goes up in July comes back down in August.
$BTC Sits At The 0.79 OTE After Rejecting The Order Block
$BTC 4H Price Action (Source: TradingView)
The 4-hour chart shows $BTC rejecting an order block near $67,000 and retracing into the 0.79 Optimal Trade Entry zone near $63,985. The ICT framework on the chart maps the full retracement from the session high, with the 0.5 level at approximately $65,000, the 0.62 at $64,500, the 0.79 at current price, and the 1.0 level at $63,100 as the full retracement target.
The setup entering the weekend has two clear paths. If price accepts the 0.79 OTE and buyers step in, New York’s Sunday session could extend the rally toward the $67,000 buy-side liquidity that the order block rejection left untouched. If the OTE fails, price targets the $63,100 liquidity zone at the 1.0 retracement level. A London sweep of Asia’s range on the 15-minute chart is expected before any directional commitment prints on the higher timeframe.
What Are The Key Support And Resistance Levels For $BTC Today?
- Support at $63,985 on the 0.79 OTE and $63,100 at the 1.0 retracement level
- Resistance at $65,000 on the 0.5 level and $66,000 to $67,000 at the order block and buy-side liquidity
- Key floor at the ascending trendline near $63,500 from the June low
Benjamin Cowen: The July Rally Has Two Weeks Left
Analyst Benjamin Cowen argued on his latest YouTube video that 2026 is tracking 2018 as a less volatile version of the same midterm year cycle. His core observation is that $BTC is ping-ponging between two levels it cannot durably break: the bear market resistance band above and the 200-week moving average below. Every approach of both has produced a fake-out in both directions.
Cowen mapped the midterm year July return data directly. In 2022, July closed up 20% before August and September wiped those gains. In 2018, July closed up nearly 40% before the same thing happened. In 2026, $BTC is up roughly 9% in July, a smaller magnitude move that fits his description of 2026 as a lower-volatility replay of 2018. His base case is that the rally persists two to four more weeks before reversing, with the S&P 500 topping in August or September triggering the broader risk-off move that pulls $BTC lower. From that breakdown, he expects the market cycle bottom to form before a genuine bull market begins.
Cowen was explicit about the pivot condition. If $BTC has not broken down by year-end, he would defer to time-based capitulation and call the bull market back on. His short-term framing was precise: between a rock and a hard place, waiting for a catalyst to force a decision in either direction.
ETFs Closed Three Straight Green Weeks Despite Thursday’s Outflow
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $240.08M in daily outflows on July 24, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $212.17M and Fidelity’s FBTC adding $27.91M to the exit according to SoSoValue.
Despite the daily number, the week ending July 24 closed with $33.79M in net inflows, marking three consecutive positive weeks for the category. The prior two weeks logged $75.67M and $197.40M respectively, showing a decelerating but intact inflow trend. Total net assets across all funds stand at $77.82B with cumulative inflows at $51.39B.
The weekly streak matters more than the daily reading. Three straight positive weeks after months of outflows reflects sustained institutional demand at the $63,000 to $67,000 range, even if individual sessions swing negative on profit-taking.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Upside and Downside Targets
- Upside case: $BTC accepts the 0.79 OTE at $63,985, London sweeps Asia’s range and holds, New York extends the move toward $67,000 buy-side liquidity, and the three-week ETF inflow streak continues into next week as the FOMC hold on July 29 removes the last macro headwind.
- Downside case: The 0.79 OTE fails, $BTC slides to the $63,100 liquidity zone, Cowen’s 2018 analog accelerates its timeline, and August opens with a continuation of Thursday’s ETF outflow as the S&P tops earlier than expected and drags risk assets lower.
