Bitcoin spot demand has weakened sharply even as its price has remained relatively stable in recent weeks.
According to CryptoQuant, this divergence could leave the market vulnerable if selling pressure returns. CryptoQuant contributor ScenarioX noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day Spot Demand recovered to around -80,000 $BTC in early July.
However, it later fell back to nearly -170,000 $BTC, signaling a renewed slowdown in spot buying activity.
$BTC Spot Demand Weakens as Price Holds Steady
According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s recent resilience has not been driven by stronger spot demand. Instead, price stability has largely been supported by easing short-term selling pressure and short covering in the derivatives market.
ScenarioX argued that derivatives activity has helped prevent a deeper decline. However, futures-driven demand alone is not enough to sustain a long-term bullish trend.
As a result, Bitcoin remains in a “structurally fragile” state, the analyst said. Without meaningful spot buying, the market could face a sharp downside move if spot investors begin selling again.
Recovery Could Face Liquidation Risk
Meanwhile, ScenarioX said the momentum in derivatives could continue supporting a short-term rebound as long as spot selling remains limited.
However, the analyst warned that rallies driven mainly by leveraged positions are often unstable. Without stronger spot demand, the current recovery may culminate in a large long liquidation, forcing bullish traders to close positions as prices fall.
The report highlights a growing gap between Bitcoin’s stable price action and weakening underlying demand. It suggests the market may be less resilient than it appears.
Bitcoin Continues Sideways Movement
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin was trading at $63,941 at the time of writing. The cryptocurrency was down 1.2% over the past 24 hours but remained up 1.91% over the previous seven days.
Bitcoin has gained just 0.41% over the past month, reflecting an extended period of sideways trading. It remains down 27% year-to-date.
ETF Flows Paint a Mixed Picture
Analytics platform Santiment recently noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $264.4 million in net inflows over the past two weeks as Bitcoin reclaimed the $64,000 level. This ended a prolonged period of outflows in May and June.
Fidelity’s FBTC led the early July rebound with roughly $166 million in inflows, while ARKB attracted about $91.8 million. BlackRock’s IBIT also returned to positive territory, contributing $138.9 million during a session that saw $181.1 million of total Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Santiment attributed the renewed interest to softer U.S. inflation data, improving expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and optimism around crypto regulation.
However, CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech argued that the recent recovery should be viewed in the context of the broader trend.
While spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated more than 500,000 $BTC in net inflows during 2024 and around 250,000 $BTC at their 2025 peak, the analyst noted that 2026 has so far recorded roughly 120,000 $BTC in cumulative net outflows.
According to the analyst, if ETF demand was a major driver of Bitcoin’s previous rally, the persistent net outflows this year remain a headwind unless other sources of capital replace that demand.
