Bitcoin ($BTC) extended its recent correction on Thursday, trading below $65,800 after posting modest losses in the previous session.
While institutional investors continue accumulating Bitcoin through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have dampened investor sentiment and limited the cryptocurrency’s upside.
The latest decline comes as higher oil prices and renewed inflation fears prompt traders to reassess expectations for US monetary policy.
Rising geopolitical risks pressure Bitcoin
Bitcoin rallied earlier in the week, climbing toward its mid-June highs and reaching a monthly high of over $66,000.
However, bullish momentum faded as geopolitical developments triggered a shift away from risk assets.
The conflict between the United States and Iran intensified after the US military reportedly carried out another round of strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure.
In response, Iran continued attacks on US military assets across the Gulf region.
Tensions escalated further after Iran reportedly targeted two oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement launched attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.
The incidents have heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
Adding to market uncertainty, US President Donald Trump warned that the United States could target additional Iranian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if attacks on commercial shipping continue.
The escalating conflict has pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, raising concerns that energy-driven inflation could remain elevated.
As inflation expectations rise, investors increasingly believe the Federal Reserve may maintain a tighter monetary policy for longer than previously anticipated.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a July interest rate hike has climbed significantly in recent days, reflecting growing expectations that policymakers could adopt a more hawkish stance if inflation pressures persist.
Higher interest rates generally reduce the appeal of risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies by increasing the attractiveness of fixed-income investments and tightening financial conditions.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent weakness, institutional demand has remained resilient.
Data from SoSoValue shows that US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $68.99 million in net inflows on Wednesday, extending their streak to seven consecutive trading days of positive flows.
The continued accumulation by institutional investors suggests that long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains intact, even as short-term macroeconomic uncertainty weighs on prices.
If ETF inflows continue in the coming sessions, they could provide support for Bitcoin and help limit further downside.
Bitcoin technical outlook: Bears target $64,000 support level
Bitcoin is currently trading near $65,800, holding just above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at approximately $65,163.
Maintaining support above this technical level indicates that buyers remain active despite the ongoing correction.
However, the broader recovery remains constrained by stronger resistance levels overhead.
Bitcoin faces immediate resistance around the 100-day EMA at $68,063 and the 200-day EMA ($74,348).
A decisive break above the 100-day EMA could strengthen bullish momentum and open the door for a move toward higher resistance levels.
On the downside, traders are closely monitoring the next support at the 50-day EMA of $65,163.
Failure to defend this support could see the bears push $BTC’s price lower towards the demand zone at $64,004.
A sustained break below these levels could increase selling pressure and trigger a deeper corrective move.
Technical indicators currently present a balanced outlook.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the neutral 50 level at around 52, suggesting that bears have not fully gained control.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, signaling that upward momentum still exists, although it has yet to overcome the broader bearish resistance structure.
