Renowned cryptocurrency analyst and founder of Into the Cryptoverse, Benjamin Cowen, assessed the current state of Bitcoin (BTC) and global markets in his latest analysis.
Cowen noted that Bitcoin was rejected by encountering strong resistance from the 200-day simple moving average (200D SMA), a critical technical indicator, and that the bear market cycle may not be over yet.
Cowen argued that Bitcoin rising to the 200-day moving average and then reversing from there is a pattern frequently seen in bear markets historically. The analyst recalled that similar levels were tested in May 2018 and 2022, followed by sharp sell-offs in June. He noted that the only exception to this rule in historical cycles was 2014, when the price managed to rise slightly above the average.
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Cowen, who believes the current market rally may not be permanent, stated, “My prediction is that this weakness in Bitcoin will continue until the third quarter of the year and possibly into the beginning of the fourth quarter.” The analyst reminded investors that nothing is certain in the market and that they should remain cautious.
Cowen stated that cyclical analyses reveal periods of weakness and strength, noting that in mid-election years, following weaknesses in February and April, the next critical downturn window is typically in June. He added that after a potential pullback in June, the next major cyclical weakness could be seen in October or November.
Cowen, stating that he hasn’t taken off his bear goggles yet, shared two main scenarios for the coming months:
- The price is expected to trade sideways in May, followed by a sharp sell-off in June that sweeps away the local lows of February. A temporary rebound might be seen in July and August, after which the true bottom of the cycle is reached in October.
- Bitcoin could once again rebound towards the Fibonacci 0.382 level (or the mid-$80,000 range), as it has historically done before major declines, followed by a sharp sell-off towards its final low in the fourth quarter.
The analyst noted that cycles typically bottom out about a year after their peak, but this process could be extended due to expanding business cycles and interest rates remaining high for longer periods, adding that the most optimistic bottom expectation for the market is October 2026.
*This is not investment advice.
