The market’s anticipation of a possible Bitcoin (BTC) rebound seems to have been dampened, considering that indicators suggest further downside in the coming days.
In line with this, trading expert Alan Santana projected in a TradingView post on June 23 that investors should expect a ‘major low’ for Bitcoin before experiencing any rebound.
Turning to the timing of the next major low, Santana based his speculation on historical patterns. The analyst observed that it took exactly 48 days for Bitcoin to establish a major low after the all-time high. Using this pattern, he predicted two potential dates for the next low: July 8, 2024, and July 25, 2024.
The expert leaned towards the 8th of July because this is the ideal day when considering when Bitcoin printed its latest lower high.
Santana used TradingView’s index, which indicates that the bounce after the May 1 low ended on May 21, leading to the July 8 projection. If the last high is considered to be set on June 7, 2024, the date shifts to July 25, 2024.
The analyst also warned of a potential major crash, noting that everything closed extremely bearish on the side of the conventional market, including stocks and gold. On the flip side, he noted that once the low is in, investors should expect a major buying opportunity.
“We are going with the 8th of July because this is the day that comes up if we consider when Bitcoin printed its latest lower high. Keep in mind that after the low is in, a major buy opportunity will develop for long-term growth. But first, the last flush,” the expert said.
The psychological impact
It’s worth noting that Santana initially based his analysis on the psychological barrier some investors face with Bitcoin’s high prices. He mentioned that a section of investors might not be willing to pay $70,000 for one BTC as they believe it is too expensive. However, he noted that while this doesn’t directly impact technical analysis, it is a factor to consider.
While emphasizing that prices can be misleading, Santana pointed out the importance of human psychology and market participants’ perceptions in predicting market behavior. According to the trading expert, understanding these psychological factors can aid in accurately forecasting market trends.
Bitcoin price analysis
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was at $64,148, with weekly losses of almost 4% after losing the $66,000 mark earlier in the week.
Overall, Bitcoin’s key resistance is between $66,000 and $66,600, with significant support around $64,000 to $64,500, where the asset has found some stability. These levels remain the focus moving into the new week.
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
